Obama +6 in New Hampshire — WMUR Granite State Poll

Obama maintains a nice lead in New Hampshire at 47 to 41 with 9% Undecided according to the latest in the WMUR Granite State Poll:

The latest WMUR Granite State Poll shows that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Barack Obama and now trails by 6 points, compared to 15 points last week. The poll shows Obama leading 47 to 41 percent, with 9 percent saying they are undecided. Obama’s lead shrank after a debate performance many said was weak, though 57 percent of the respondents in the poll weighed in before the debate. The poll of 559 likely voters was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from Sept. 30 through Oct. 6 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

“With 30 days left, I think this is a jump ball,” said pollster Andy Smith. “I think the difference will still be turnout, which party is able to motivate their more marginal supporters out to the polls. And, watch where the independents go.” The poll indicates Romney’s resurgence is largely due to female voters giving him a second look. “Historically, women have been going strongly for Democrats, and they have been going very, very strongly for Obama,” Smith said.

But Smith said things are shifting in a big way among female voters. Last week, the president held a 27-point lead among New Hampshire women, but that number is now down to 9. “We’re seeing that in New Hampshire, and we are seeing that across the country,” Smith said. “And I think that this means that this election is in a very, very different position now that it was two weeks ago.” Despite the shift, a majority of voters still think Obama will win, with 61 percent saying he will be re-elected compared to 25 percent who say Romney will win. In September, 51 percent thought Obama would win.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 41
Other 2
Undecided 9

19 Comments

  1. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nine point swing in one week? Sounds like they have a super-loose likely voter “screen.”

  2. valleyforge
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In other words, Romney gained 9 points on Obama, even though 3 out of 7 respondents were asked before the debate. So either their poll last week was garbage or Romney scored something like a 12-15 point turnaround in NH with the debate. I’m guessing the former.

  3. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 6:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If R’s only 4-6 pts down in CT he sure as hell isn’t 6 pts down in NH.

    • David Pedersen
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 7:37 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Exactly. I live in NH and there are a lot of RR signs in individual yards and businesses. I only counted one or two BO signs until recently and the new ones are in puplic places like side of road so they just put a bunch there propably one person. BO won CT by 23 in 08 and NH by 10 so if CT is that close, NH is probably a RR lead right now.

      • Kevin
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

        Are there a lot of get out to vote drives for Romney in New Hampshire? Does Romney have a good ground crew at work? Also, is there a lot of ad buys on tv, and radio for Romney?

        Thanks for the info ahead of time.

      • Dave Ped
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

        NH is a funny state, there are a lot of independents and many are fiscal conservatives. The state is i think it is over 90% white and considering BHO support with the white vote is 38% or less, i dont see how he can win here. MA does influence NH with the libs moving up there to get away from taxachusetts. I did notice this week a LOT of RR signs popping up in my neighbors yards. Its like the debate confirms what they believed already. There is a lot of anti obama and pro romney ads from outside groups on the radio too. Romney has a house in wolfboro nh so he has been here a lot. Sununu former governer of nh and romney surragate said that the wmur poll was garbage and he knows this state. My sense is that RR will win the state by 5. Everyone i talk to is voting for RR and even some my neighbors voted for BO in 08 and regret it since 2009.

  4. Posted October 9, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Any breakdown of the respondants, before or after the debate?

  5. valleyforge
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 6:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Correction – 4 out of 7 responded before the debate. So if the first 4 nights were still Obama +15 (nothing changed since week prior, right?) then the last 3 nights must have been Romney + 6. No, I’m still going with the garbage theory.

  6. housebroken dad
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 6:09 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Yeah, this poll is pretty worthless, especially coming from the outfit that had O up 15 to begin with. Any party ID breakdown?

  7. No Tribe
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 6:16 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney hasn’t been increasing his ad buy in NH enough to catch up.

    In September, Romney spent $525K on ads, Obama spent $4.9M Got that? A 20:1 ratio.

    In October’s first week, Romney spent 484K and Obama 1.3M. A 3:1 ratio.

    And outside groups are not making up the difference.

    Paul Ryan last visited the state Sept 18th, Ann Romney was there Sept 8th.

    Romney last campaigned there Sept 5th, 6th, and 7th. Obama came there last on Sept 7th.

    So, I am not convinced that Romney’s team still views it as a state to go after strongly with resources. Not a battleground in the sense of FL, OH, VA.

    • jeff
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 6:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Wasnt there a leak of internals showing Romney ahead by 3? This poll has no credibility.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 8:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama squeezed in Ohio today. Devoting 3 days to debate prep in Williamsburg VA this week. The 11th in Miami– last day to register to vote.

  9. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I read on another site that some pollster will stop polling in NC, FL and Virginia (!) because “in our opinion they’re red now, Romney states not battlegrounds”

    • Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If you can find that citation it would be very helpful. I highly doubt that about Virginia but would be extremely curious about any comments like that regarding Florida. I’m beginning to track Obama to see his next visit there. And I’m not seeing it.

    • jeff
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yes the pollster was on O Reilly and basically said that VA FL and NC are in the bag for MR. That is huge. If you just add CO which I think will almost certainly go to MR then he only needs to win OH to win the election. By all accounts MR is surging in OH.

      • jeff
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

        The pollster who is not aligned to either party suggested that early absentee requests in OH did not bide well for BO. I just dont see him getting more than 47% in OH including expected voter fraud.

    • Posted October 9, 2012 at 9:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Thanks everyone. That’s a bold call by Suffolk Polling. I blogged it as soon as you guys passed along the tip. Great job!

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