Obama +4 in Ohio — CNN/ORC

Good poll for Obama showing a 4-point lead 51 to 47 in Ohio. The party ID was D +2 (Dem 34, Rep 32, Ind 34). This compares to 2008 of D +8 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and 2004 when it was R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  Obama leads by 4-points with Independents which unsurprisingly matches his overall lead. The winning candidate underperformed in Ohio relative their national results in both 2004 and 2008 and it looks like 2012 will be no different with Ohio vacillating between the two candidates in the latest surveys.

Quick note on turnout: The survey does not provide which racial make-up they used for the Ohio electorate. In 2008 it was 83% White, 11% Black, 4% Latino, 1% Asian and Barack Obama garnered 46% of the White vote.  In this CNN poll of Ohio Obama gets only 40% of the White vote.  A 6% drop in the 83% demographic would cause Obama to lose 5% off his 2008 win margin which happened to be …. 5%.  The bottom line is Ohio is no worse than tied for Romney today, a great change from just one week ago:

On the day that both presidential candidates are campaigning in Ohio, a new poll indicates a close contest in the race for the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes. According to a CNN/ORC International poll (PDF), 51% of likely voters in Ohio say they’re backing President Barack Obama, with 47% supporting Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Obama’s four point advantage is within the poll’s sampling error. The survey, released Tuesday, was conducted October 5-8, entirely after last Wednesday’s first presidential debate. Since non-partisan, live operator polls of likely voters in Ohio conducted prior to the debate indicated Obama with a 7-10 point advantage over the former Massachusetts governor, the new CNN survey suggests that Romney got a bounce following the debate…Among those likely voters, 34% described themselves as Democrats, 34% described themselves as Independents, and 32% described themselves as Republicans.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 47
Other 1
Undecided 1

11 Comments

  1. Posted October 9, 2012 at 4:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney is not going to lose Ohio, period.

  2. Anthony
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 4:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m comforted by that analysis. What to make of the ramped up Republican voter registration in Cuyahoga?

    • Posted October 9, 2012 at 4:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Very positive news for the Republicans but it has to translate into actual votes. The Obama campaign constantly counts its chickens before they hatch, I’m much more conservative than that in my prognostication. The enthusiasm gap, the registration improvement, the voter contacts all speak to a much different GOP operation in 2012 versus the comparables in 2008. But none of it equals a vote until the ballot has been cast. I’m cautiously optimistic but know a lot more work needs to be done between now and election day.

      The John Kerry 2004 story is always worth keeping in mind. He didn’t just think he won because of faulty exit polls. His #s accurately showed he was winning Independents and with Democrats historically having a registration and party identification advantage in every election, his camp thought it was mathematically impossible to lose based on the #s they were seeing. But it turned out the GOP turnout machine set records for turnout no one outside of Bush-Cheney 04 thought possible.

      If you’re Team Romney you have to prepare for Obama to have an incredible turnout and not rest on just closing the gap in registrations and enthusiasm.

      I’m still cautiously optimistic, but ~29 days out I’m more cautious than optimistic.

  3. Tim
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 5:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If Pennsylvania is “close”, then Ohio has tipped to Romney. That’s just my gut. We’ll know during the debate how close any of the swing states are based on how many times Biden mentions them.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 5:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I actually don’t think that’s the case. Obama has poured federal money into Ohio more than any other midwestern state. Compared to WI, MI, or PA, it’s not even close per capita with the amount of largesse. It’s their final firewall and they are about to start sending them money through the mail.

  4. Posted October 9, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I don’t buy the independent polling on this one. Many other polls show Romney with strong edges among indies. I take it as an outlier or as Democrats saying they are independent to try to skew it.

    Agree with above, that is Romney is close in Pennsylvania (and Michigan too), that he’s ahead in Ohio.

    Ramping up GOP support in Cuyahoga would be huge. I’m from the Cleveland area originally, so I think there are a lot of votes to be had in the suburbs – Parma, Brook Park, Westlake, Lakewood, Brooklyn, Berea, etc.

  5. Kevin Brown
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    question for Buckeye state residents, what about the southeastern portion of the state or coal country did Obama do well in 08 and romney has a chance to take away lots of votes or are the amount of voters too small to make a big difference

    • jeff
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I dont buy that BO is leading with indies when every other polls Ive seen have shown MR with a substantial lead with them. Hence this poll is pretty suspect.

      • damien
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

        obama gettin 19% r is pretty suspect too

      • jeff
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

        I also noticed that theyre showing almost 20% consetvatives voting for BO. REALLY? Quite frankly the more you look at this poll the more it doesnt pass the smell test. I guess with other polls showing MR surging im the all important state of Ohio CNN had to somehow manipulate the poll to show BO in the lead.

        affitmativeaction poll. its just not fthat MR leads in Ohio

  6. jvnvch
    Posted October 10, 2012 at 4:36 am | Permalink | Reply

    It’s extremely unlikely Romney will lose Ohio. Extremely.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: