Good poll for Obama showing a 4-point lead 51 to 47 in Ohio. The party ID was D +2 (Dem 34, Rep 32, Ind 34). This compares to 2008 of D +8 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and 2004 when it was R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). Obama leads by 4-points with Independents which unsurprisingly matches his overall lead. The winning candidate underperformed in Ohio relative their national results in both 2004 and 2008 and it looks like 2012 will be no different with Ohio vacillating between the two candidates in the latest surveys.
Quick note on turnout: The survey does not provide which racial make-up they used for the Ohio electorate. In 2008 it was 83% White, 11% Black, 4% Latino, 1% Asian and Barack Obama garnered 46% of the White vote. In this CNN poll of Ohio Obama gets only 40% of the White vote. A 6% drop in the 83% demographic would cause Obama to lose 5% off his 2008 win margin which happened to be …. 5%. The bottom line is Ohio is no worse than tied for Romney today, a great change from just one week ago:
On the day that both presidential candidates are campaigning in Ohio, a new poll indicates a close contest in the race for the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes. According to a CNN/ORC International poll (PDF), 51% of likely voters in Ohio say they’re backing President Barack Obama, with 47% supporting Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Obama’s four point advantage is within the poll’s sampling error. The survey, released Tuesday, was conducted October 5-8, entirely after last Wednesday’s first presidential debate. Since non-partisan, live operator polls of likely voters in Ohio conducted prior to the debate indicated Obama with a 7-10 point advantage over the former Massachusetts governor, the new CNN survey suggests that Romney got a bounce following the debate…Among those likely voters, 34% described themselves as Democrats, 34% described themselves as Independents, and 32% described themselves as Republicans.