Obama +3 in Pennsylvania…12% Undecided — Siena Research

Another Pennsylvania poll shows a tight race in the Keystone State.  Interestingly the survey was conducted before and after the debate so it doesn’t fully capture the sea change in the election.  The 12% Undecideds in high but not unusual in what I have been seeing in this diverse and complicated state:

Is Pennsylvania another swing state? The Siena College Research Institute (SRI) announces the results of its poll of likely Pennsylvania voters: Obama 43%, Romney 40%, Undecided 12%. The poll also reports that Bob Casey Jr. leads Tom Smith (44% to 35%) in the United States Senate Election in Pennsylvania. Obama is viewed favorably by 49 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent of voters while Romney has a 40 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable rating.

“With a month and two more debates to go, Pennsylvania’s direction on the road to the White House remains in doubt. The final tally depends upon the sizable group of voters that in early October had yet to decide. With clear differences in the Presidential race by party and area, turnout will make the difference,” said Levy. This Siena College Pennsylvania Pre-election Poll was conducted October 1-5, 2012 by telephone calls to 545 likely voters. A likely voter screen was applied to the sample of registered voters identified through random digit dialing sampling via both land and cell phone calls. Data has been statistically adjusted to reflect party registration, gender and age. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 43
Mitt Romney 40
Undecided 12

UPDATE:

 

2 Comments

  1. Interested Party
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 10:26 am | Permalink | Reply

    If R starts campaigning in MI and PA, this one could be over. It looks like they may…give it 1-2 weeks. The long term R strategy appears to have been to crush the O side in the debates (part one accomplished), then expand the field if possible building on momentum. The same game plan as the primaries, if you go back and look. Debate, then crush.

    I think OH, VA, and FL go R this year barring any major setbacks.

    I’m not sure what can be done to blunt the R momentum. Pew and PPP show R leads. Gallup swtiches to LV today, and with RV being tied, I would be surprised if R didn’t lead that one as well. The 47% tape came out too early (David Corn, bite me)–it’s old news, and R disavowed it. I think at best the remaining debates will be tied given O’s personality, which he cannot change.

    So what’s left?

  2. changer1701
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 10:47 am | Permalink | Reply

    They’re not spending any money in PA or MI at this point, but they should be. Go big. Expand the map, and maybe get a fall back state should one of the big three (particularly OH) not go our way.

3 Trackbacks

  1. […] http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/09/obama-3-in-pennsylvania-12-undecided-siena-research/ Filed Under: Battleground States Tagged With: Battleground, Obama, Pennsylvania, Romney […]

  2. […] Sienna Research: Obama +3 […]

  3. […] Sienna Research: Obama +3 […]

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