Connecticut?… Again???

Back in late August 2 polls came out with a poll in Connecticut showing Barack Obama with single-digit leads over Mitt Romney.  Now Rasmussen has released another poll in the Nutmeg State showing Obama with a 6-point lead.  This was a state Obama won by 23-points in 2008:

President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in Connecticut. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama with 51% support to 45% for Romney.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.  This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 45
Other 1
Undecided 3


  1. margaret
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 2:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Romney post-debate tide is raising all boats. Doesn’t mean that these blue states can be captured, but maybe, just maybe, one or two will tip over.

  2. Posted October 9, 2012 at 2:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    If just one tips over, he’s done. And I think most, if not all, of the purple states are swinging Romney. Romney’s debate performance convinced a lot of people that we can do much better. Before that, Obama was able to make Romney a caricature. He can’t do it anymore. As Ann Romney said in an interview, America finally got to meet the Mitt Romney she knows.

    All Mitt needs to do is stay aggressive and be Mitt. He is not some out of touch tycoon, but a compassionate man who wants to give everyone an opportunity to succeed.

  3. damien
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

    the greenwich and stamford richie richies dont like obama

    • margaret
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 2:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Maybe the hard-hitting New Yorker empty chair cover now gives them a reason to ridicule and reject Obama openly.

      • damien
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

        well whatever the reason…keep it up

  4. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 2:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I would put Connecticut, along with Minn and Oregon, in the third tier of swing states.

    First tier: OH, FL, VA, IA, NV, CO, NC, NH
    Second: MI, PA

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 3:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Also, the 1 EV of Maine is in the third tier, or maybe even second? If Romney wins NH, he’s going to be really close to winning Maine’s 1 EV.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

        NM also in third tier.

        That probably covers the feasible.

    • Eric
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 3:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      North Carolina is 2nd tier. Romney will win North Carolina by at least 8, probably by double digits.

    • Posted October 9, 2012 at 3:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think if Connecticut goes Romney then New Jersey might as well. So Jersey might be in that third tier too.

  5. No Tribe
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 3:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    RCP’s no toss-up map, Colorado today join’s Florida this week to flip to Romney:

    Just Ohio and Virginia away from being in the EV lead.

  6. No Tribe
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 3:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    2012 is starting to feel like 1988.

    Dukakis peaked with convention bump, then posed in a tank and Bush ran ads against Massachusetts (revolving inmates, environment, liberal taxes), and then was sealed in loss with the debates.

    • damien
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 3:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      i think big bird might be obama’s tank

      • Kevin
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

        The more Obama talks about Big Bird, the more the American people will give him the bird.

  7. damien
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    if the romney campaign knew what the heck they were doing they would do a buy in conn…but would that be new york and new jersey reaching into conn?…like boston tv and radio reaches into nh?…if they could do it without having to buy ny or nj rates then it might be worth it

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I seriously doubt they try to stretch the map. They seem to be focusing on doing just what it takes to win. Not wanting to look back at having wasted $ or travel to states that didn’t tip in the end. Maybe if they start to really roll in the dough that will change, but it’s been their playbook to date.

    • Posted October 9, 2012 at 4:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think if you stretch the map the best place to do so if in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Now, a Philly ad buy will take you into Jersey and Delaware. If Pennsylvania and Michigan remain close, it may also force Obama to have to spend resources in places he had hoped not too.

      Big problem for Obama is their scare tactics don’t seem to be helping them and haven’t all summer. People want to hear solutions, not that the other guy is a liar.

      • AussieMarcus
        Posted October 10, 2012 at 6:00 am | Permalink

        I don’t think Obama will bother to spend a penny in MI and PA. If he loses those, he’s lost the election anyway. He’s built the Ohio Firewall and will likely stick to that.

        He knows that if/when Ohio is breached, Romney will run over the top of him anyway.

  8. No Tribe
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 4:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So TIPP poll just started today:

    Along with Gallup switching over to LV model.

    • Posted October 9, 2012 at 4:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

      When doing a 35-35-30 split with their numbers. came up with 50.25% for Romney and 42.4% for Obama. Romney’s up by 18 amongst indies in that poll. And if undecideds break JUST 60/40 to Romney (average is 72% to the challenger for the past several years) then it turns into 55-45 in favor of Romney. D+3 narrows in a little, but I don’t expect any more than D+3. Rasmussen’s voter ID indicates a GOP + 2.6 advantage, so I think an even turnout like 2004 is very possible. And remember, the GOP out showed the Democrats in Wisconsin earlier this year.

      It also verifies what I think likely – the GOP is firmly behind their candidate with Democratic support for Obama under 90%.

      If Romney is up by 18 among indies and it stays that way, the race is over. No candidate can win while losing indies by double digits, not now.

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 9, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

        I agree on the Indies. That should be a major storyline right now, rather than the looking at any gaps. Obama won the Independents by 7% in 2008 and is losing them today.

  9. mdsanders
    Posted October 9, 2012 at 4:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I wonder what California is looking like right now. Not saying it’s anywhere near being Romney’s but I have to believe there is some movement there as well.

    • Posted October 9, 2012 at 4:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Last poll is about a month old and had Obama up by 14 compared to his 24 point win in 2008. I’d guess it may be within 10 at this point. That’s about what Kerry won by.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Gotta be, with $5+ gas.

    • WillBest
      Posted October 9, 2012 at 7:03 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I don’t know about CA, but I would bet serious coin that Obama has less than an 8 point lead on Romney in IL. Incidentally, I don’t know how Obama wins the popular vote anymore. All the blue states are coming down from their highs, and with the exception of AZ, non of the red states have polled to the center.

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