Romney +4 Nationally — Pew Research (careful on the Party ID though)

It’s only one national poll and the election is still a month away but the respondents are all post-debate and Romney clearly did a great job “making the sale.” Pew Research just released a poll of 1,112 likely voters (so good sample size) showing Mitt Romney leading 49 to 45.  The entire poll is good for Romney with one exception, the party ID is a BIG Republican turnout of R +2.75 (Dem 32.5, Rep 35.25, Ind 29.5).  This would be a record turnout for Republicans beating the 2004 turnout of dead even between the two parties.  Oddly enough though, the party ID almost exactly mirrors Rasmussen’s  party ID expectation and he has nailed the last two general elections (more on that here) so there is a basis for this turnout although I’d model D +2. Drill down on the linked poll because there is plenty to look at (especially Obama’s support among White voters) in this comprehensive survey:

Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit. In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 45
Mitt Romney 49
Other/Don’t Know 6


  1. jvnvch
    Posted October 8, 2012 at 4:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Pew was very accurate in their final poll in 2008. They are not known to lean right.

  2. damien
    Posted October 8, 2012 at 4:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    12 point swing in a month….um no…romney was never down 8 and obama isnt down 4

  3. Mark Casper
    Posted October 8, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

    One other important point to be mentioned in the poll problems.

    When we look to exit polls to give us the historic norms in PVI, we must remember they are also proven to lean slightly to significantly towards the D’s. The most comprehensive study was done in 2004…

    “…On average, the exit poll estimates demonstrated an overstatement of the Democratic vote in both the President and Senate races. The average overstatement was slightly larger for Kerry in the Presidential race than for the Democratic Senate candidates.

    Comparison of National Exit Poll vs. Actual Results:

    The national exit poll had a similar Kerry overstatement. The weighted national survey numbers showed Kerry with 51% and Bush with 48%. The final national popular vote margin ended up being 2.5% for Bush. Thus, the national exit poll had an error of 5.5 points on the difference in the Democratic direction which is similar to the 5.0 average from the state surveys.

    Bad data collection led NEP to incorrectly overestimate the John Kerry vote in 26 states. By comparison, the Bush vote was overstated in just 4 states..”

    Here is the whole report … … See page 20

    So when we speak of a D+7 in 2008 and a tied PVI in 2004 and a D+3 in 2000 … you could be looking at a D+3 or +2 in 08 / R+4 or +5 in 04 / R+2 in 2000 as the actual PVI.

    Taking that into account, along with the other factors i have raised … I do not think it is hard to see why I am expecting a R+2 to an R+4 voter base this year.

  4. Posted October 8, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    to be safe I would call this race at BEST R/D Even or D+2. I would rather see Romney winning polls at D+2 or +3 rather than assumptions of an R+ turnout.

    I want to see Romeny up 1-3 with polls expecting Democrat majorities that will make me go into election not in need of sedation. If it is Romney up 1 or 2 with polls expecting R+2….I will not rest until all three stations declare him the next POTUS.

  5. William Jefferson Jr.
    Posted October 8, 2012 at 5:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Out of fairness to Pew, they used a 7-question likely voter screen, much different (and more rigorous) than the typical one question (“How certain are you to vote?”) likely voter “screen” used by other pollsters. It is the function of the screen to determine as best as possible who is turning out on election day. If more Republicans make it through the screen, I’m not sure what criteria you use to “re-weight” the partisan ID and what logical rationale you would have for doing so. If there’s something wrong with your likely voter screen, to the extent that it lets in too many Democrats or too many Republicans, you need to change your likely voter screen.

    • shane
      Posted October 8, 2012 at 10:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

      i love how the media refers to.Romney’s 4% lead as asslight one..Yet any lead by Obama and the race was over.

      I don’t want to overreact to polls anything can change, no hopes up. But it is funny to watch the MSM dance around these crumbling polls for Obama since they were calling it over a week ago

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  1. […] Battleground Watch Talking only about the states that matter this election year Skip to content About « Romney +4 Nationally — Pew Research (careful on the Party ID though) […]

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