Obama +2 in Pennsylvania — Susquehanna

Another great poll for Romney in Pennsylvania.  Obama remains stubbornly below the 50% threshold at 47% while Romney is within the margin of error.  Remember with Susquehanna, they go to great lengths explaining their methodology which basically breaks down to the 2008 euphoria for Obama isn’t being seen on the ground today and their polling results reflect that.  Wild concept, I know, but as @REALStacyDash found out, speak the truth about Team Obama and the Obamatons will shout you down among other disgusting tactics.

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 2 point margin, identical to his lead in late September according to Susquehanna Polling and Research. But the Republican’s debate performance contributed to a 6 point jump in his favorability rating. In a poll conducted just after the first presidential debate, from Oct. 4 to 6, 47 percent of respondents said they support Obama; 45 percent support Romney. 3 percent support Libertarian Gary Johnson. The Obama-Romney head-to-head numbers are identical the most recent Susquehanna Polling and Research survey released on Sept. 23. The margin of that poll, commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review closely resemble that of another SP&R survey conducted for the Pa. Republican party which showed Obama at a 48 percent to 47 advantage. When the undecided voters leaning towards a candidate are factored in (breaking 3:1 for Romney), the race narrows to a 1-point Obama lead, 47 percent to 46. Obama is viewed net favorably, 50 percent to 47 percent. Perhaps the most significant, given that 76 percent of respondents said they watched the debate, is that for the first time in any public poll, Romney achieves favorable status. 48 percent view him favorably compared to 42 percent who do not.

The pollster further broke down the race thusly:

“Obama leads among all females 52-42, while Romney leads 49-42 among males.  In geographic regions, Romney leads Obama in the Southwest (49-36), “T”/Central (63-27), and South Central/Harrisburg (51-39), while Obama leads Romney in the Northwest (58-39), Northeast/Lehigh Valley (53-38) and Philadelphia (86-13).   Obama leads narrowly in the 4 suburban counties in the Southeast (50-45), while Romney leads narrowly in Allegheny County (51-46).  Although the regional breaks usually have a higher margin of error due to smaller sample sizes within them, if these closer margins hold for Romney in both the Southeast and Allegheny County it would validate a significant trend nationally that he is doing better in suburban communities than McCain did four years ago.  In 2008, Obama won Allegheny County and the 4 collar counties around Philadelphia each by fifteen point margins.”

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 45
Gary Johnson 3
Undecided 5


  1. damien
    Posted October 8, 2012 at 4:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    will johnson do 3 points in any state?

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 8, 2012 at 6:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Not in PA, but I think he will elsewhere. Most assuredly in the pot ballot states. I’d bet on his best showing, outside NM, being in WA and OR.

  2. jpcapra1
    Posted October 8, 2012 at 4:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Again, look at where they are campaigning and that tells you everything you need to know. 0bama has been to Wisconsin twice in the last 4 weeks, he hasn’t been to Florida since the weekend after his convention, except to raise $$. Romney has been to PA twice in the last ten days, and Ryan is in Michigan today. The writing is on the wall, but we have to keep working.

  3. AussieMarcus
    Posted October 8, 2012 at 11:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Interesting thing about this poll is that 50% of people agree “someone new deserves a go as President”. Only 47% disagree, and 47% is Obama’s vote.

    Romney is only on 45% BUT there’s clearly another 5% who are very open to voting for him (“giving someone new a go”)…….another visit or two in the coming weeks to seal the deal??

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] Susquehanna: Obama +2 […]

  2. […] Susquehanna also ran another poll October 8 which confirmed Obama’s 2-point lead […]

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