Romney +3.5 in Colorado (post-Debate) — Gravis Marketing

Another post-debate bounce for Romney.  The party ID was R +4 (Dem 28, Rep 32, Ind 40).  This compares to 2008 of R +1 (Dem 30, Rep 31, Ind 39) and 2004 R +9 (Dem 29, Rep 38, Ind 33). This splits it right down the middle between the last 2 election which is what I have been arguing all along.  Let each campaign model out private turnout models far to their own advantage but give the public a fair approximation what what the electorate looks like, not the garbage they have been spitting out over the last month or so. The latest from Gravis Marketing gives Romney a 3.5 point lead 49.4 to 45.9 in the Rocky Mountain State:

Following the debates, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm conducted a survey of 1,438 likely voters in Colorado on October 3rd – October 4th regarding their likely vote for a given presidential candidate. Of the 1,438 that began the survey, 1,285 gave a response regarding their preference for  president. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.8%. Romney’s lead is a reversal from the September 25th poll, where Obama was ahead 50.2% to 45.5%. What happened? In terms of the numbers, Obama saw a decrease of 4.4% among “Very likely Obama” voters, an increase of 1.2% among “Likely Obama” voters, and a 1.1% decrease in “Somewhat likely voters”. On the other side, Romney saw a 0.2% decline in “Very likely Romney voters,” a 1.3% increase among “Somewhat likely Romney” voters and a 2.7% increase among “Likely Romney” voters. Overall, it looks as if the debate shifted voters more away from the “very likely” category towards center. Interestingly, the percentage of “Undecided” went from 4.3% to 4.8%.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 45.9
Mitt Romney 49.4
Other/Undecided 4.8

One Comment

  1. damien
    Posted October 6, 2012 at 2:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    9 point swing in 11 days? guess is colorado will be 50-49 or 51-48 at best for either side..1 percent going third party

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