Romney +2 in Florida (post-Debate) — Rasmussen

Rasmussen shows continued momentum across the Battlegrounds with Romney enjoying a post-debate bump in Florida now leading by 2, 49 to 47:

Mitt Romney now has swung back into the lead in the first post-debate survey of the presidential race in Florida. The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Florida Likely Voters shows Romney with 49% of the vote to Obama’s 47%. Three percent (3%) are undecided at this point. The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 49
Undecided 3


  1. jeff
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney will win by 5. SR is undeestimating Republican strenghth in FL for 2012.

  2. Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The federal court has allowed more nonvoters to be removed from the rolls in FL.

  3. No Tribe
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Wow, that was quick, on RCP, the big three, Obama vs Romney average:

    Florida: 47 – 47
    Ohio: 49 – 46
    Virginia: 47.2 – 46.8

    Obama now down below 50 on all three. The good thing is that we will be able to know Ohio really well after another week or two, due to early voting. If Romney wins these three states, Obama has to run the table on the remaining 5 states, to say nothing of the 3 or 4 states that would probably come into play if Romney is in that position.

    Am looking forward to the back against the wall articles on Obama. And his desperation.

  4. No Tribe
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Oh, and I don’t chalk this all up to debate movement. Not at all, in fact, I’ve not seen a single national poll that has shown movement yet. I think it is all due to:

    Finally some very good ads done by the outside PAC’s, and massive points.

    Equal ad buys by Romney against Obama.

    Expansion of targeting by Romney to cable.

    • Tim
      Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree. I don’t think the debate bounce, should there be any, won’t be felt until next week.

    • Ranger375
      Posted October 5, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree — I thought it was a little early to pickup the debate effect in the polls.

  5. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    continue on the momentum, my friends, get out the vote and get out the message to indies.
    be on guard for massive obama giveaways to buy votes and lies, lies, and lies to defame R and R.
    they will not go gentle into that good night

    • jeff
      Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Todays manipulated jobs numbers is a first line of defebse designed to prevent the debate blow out from reaching critical mass and leaving Obamas campaign from entering free fall. But given the signals from them that they are going to try to destroy Romney with vitreolic and viscious attacks I really do belueve that that they are in a state of panic.

  6. housebroken dad
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Anyone know how Indys broke in this poll? I saw Ohio’s was 58-40 Romney which would indicate a definite Romney lead.

  7. damien
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just dont like one day glad romney is up…but I wanna wait for back up from more than we ask america

  8. Posted October 5, 2012 at 2:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen has Obama up by five in his swing state polling today (50-45). But now he also has Romney up by two in FL, up by one in VA, and down by just one in OH. I don’t know the internals of his swing state method, but it does not sound reasonable to have the average of 11 swing states that far in Obama’s favor if it is so close in the three key states — unless Obama is way ahead in, say, MI, WI, and PA.

    • Posted October 5, 2012 at 3:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It must be MI and PA, because WI is only 49-46 0

      • Posted October 5, 2012 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

        We must also recall that these three single state polls today entailed 500 voters per state, which may be statistically far more meaningful than the number Rasmussen is using to get his swing state averages. His swing state poll is based on 1300 LV spread over seven days tracking, or only 185 LV per day covering 11 states. That works out to only 17 voters per state per day. This seemingly anemic statistical basis for the swing state poll makes my skeptical of my own inference. Can anyone illuminate?

    • housebroken dad
      Posted October 5, 2012 at 3:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’ll be real curious to see post-debate polls in PA. Still quite a few Reagan democrats live there who might have switched up their vote Wed night. Still going to be quite a longshot but I think it will tighten.

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