Obama +1 in Nevada (pre-Debate) — Gravis Marketing

Here is a poll taken the day/evening of the debate by Gravis marketing showing a tight race in the Silver State:

Last evening, October3rd, Gravis Marketing,a non-partisan research firm conducted a survey of 1,006 likely voters in Nevada regarding their likely vote for a given presidential candidate. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.1%. Overall, among likely voters, Obama holds a 1.1% lead at 48.9% compared to Romney’s 47.8%,with 3.3% of likely voters still undecided.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48.9
Mitt Romney 47.8
Undecided 3.3


  1. William Jefferson
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 12:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is an interesting pollster. I think a couple weeks ago they had O+1 in Florida during that window when all of the “legitimate” polls out of the establishment media had Obama burying Romney in FL. Of course, we then saw tightening in even the NBC/Marist polls even before the debate, so these guys seem to be ahead of the curve with their polls.

  2. Eric
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 12:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Nevada has a lot of suburban voters in the Las Vegas area so it can really swing a lot more than most other states. It’s why it went so hard for Obama in 2008. If this poll was pre-debate, then Romney should be leading now in Nevada.

    Nevada might be a critical state to win. Should Romney lose Ohio, then the backup plan would be to win Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa. NV, CO, and IA plus Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana get Romney to 269 electoral votes, which would be enough to force a tie and get it to the House where Romney would win over Obama.

    Personally, I think we’ll win Ohio though along with Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, so it won’t come to that. I also think we’ll narrowly win Wisconsin. The hardest states to call right now are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.

  3. margaret
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 12:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Bush 2004 states, I believe, will all come “home”. Even the bluer ones might squeak to Romney IMHO. The independent voters (and many mushy Dems) were looking for a reason to vote Romney. It came in the debate and 72 million viewers saw it. I doubt if the audiences for the other debates will be anywhere as high. First impressions are so important and Romney looked and acted like a president.

  4. Tim
    Posted October 5, 2012 at 12:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I want a blow-out of epic proportions, but if it’s tight I would love, love, love for Harry Reid’s state to be the one to put Romney over the top !!!

    • John Fisher
      Posted October 5, 2012 at 1:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Tim — from your keyboard to God’s ear. The only problem is that I will probably be a in a fetal position if Romney doesn’t have this by NV.

  5. Posted October 5, 2012 at 1:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Naturally, Nate Silver has not included this poll in his Nevada calculations (though he uses Gravis in other state polling calculations). Nor has he updated his polling for Ohio, Virginia and Florida to reflect the latest polls showing Romney in the lead there. Instead, he says the new jobs report is great for Obama, who now has an 87% chance of winning. When he is proven wrong, I think the NY Times should fire Silver and hire Keith Backer.

    • Posted October 5, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I like it Josh! And it would be a short commute too!

    • Posted October 5, 2012 at 4:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      at this point nationally speaking with the average still Obama + 3.2 and the new job numbers and the fact that Romney can win OH, FL, NC, VI, ID and still LOSE. Statistically speaking Obama is still the favorite based completely on his number of paths to victory.

      But I do think it was interesting he dropped 11% overnight in the Intrade odds after the debate.

      Obviously, if polls nationally and the RCP AVERAGE for Florida, OH, VI, NC, etc start to show Romney + he will be forced to change his predictions. 30 days is a LIFETIME in politics

      • John fisher
        Posted October 5, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink

        Good points but I am a little Leary of intrude. As I understand all the trading is done in Europe

      • Ron
        Posted October 5, 2012 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

        Not sure if u r typing incorrectly…If Romney carries OH, FL, VA,NC and the McCain states, all he needs is one out of the others to get to 270 (IA, NV, NH,CO,WI),,,,,

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 5, 2012 at 5:25 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Nate Silver has a made up model, where he adjusts the economic side of the equation, in order to show whatever result he starts out with…. Obama winning.

  6. Posted October 5, 2012 at 1:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney leads 0bama 67.6 – 16.2% among Moslems, LOL! I do not know what to make of this poll.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 5, 2012 at 5:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I recall Bush campaigning for the Arab vote quite heavily in 2000, especially in Michigan. But that was ages ago, pretty sure it’s Obama’s pocket now.

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