We Ask America’s Fabulously Awful Poll of Nevada (and Missouri)

It is still comical to see these gawd-awful poll internals presented as credible polls. When We Ask America first burst onto the scene Leftys cried they were a partisan pro-Republican polling form because they were owned by the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association. By that they cried foul because this was sponsored by a business association of manufacturers and anyone pro-Business had to be a biased Republican outfit.

Now We Ask America time and again comes out with poll results impossible to believe that get passed off as credible. In Missouri, where Mitt Romney allegedly only leads by 3-points, he outpaces Obama among Independents by 16-points. This must be the huge Democrat wave we are seeing in the Show Me State that led President Obama to not even campaign in a state he lost by only 4,000 votes in 2008. A state with such a Democrat fervor the most unelectable Republican this cycle has pulled to even with the incumbent Democrat in the Senate race.

But we don’t blog Missouri so we’ll move on to Nevada with a comical lead for Obama of 10.5-points with Mitt Romney favored among Independents by 15.4-points. The Nevada Democrat party is doing laps around the state GOP party right now on voter registration erasing all of the gains the GOP made ahead of the Ron Paul takeover, but this is ludicrous. Nevada’s Democrat advantage at the voting booth was 8-points in 2008 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 12) flipping the GOP advantage in 2004 of 4-points (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26). Based on the absurd Obama lead and Romney’s margin with Independents, the survey has to have a 20+ point advantage of Democrats surveyed. Truly astonishingly awful. Definite winner of most in-the-bag pollster of the day.


  1. Perry Lin
    Posted October 2, 2012 at 12:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Why are you so surprised by Todd Akin’s poll results? The last 3 non-partisan polls show Akin is even with McCaskill. WeAskAmerica has claire up +1, Gravis has Akin +4, and MOScout has Akin +1.

  2. David Weed
    Posted October 2, 2012 at 12:54 pm | Permalink | Reply

    We Ask America is widely considered to be a right-leaning poll.

    It’s possible that a Democratic “wave” could be moving upwards to the Presidential race, due to the comments of Akin. Akin draws women away from the GOP, while also motivating Dems and likely affecting some Republicans. And it’s not like Missouri favored Romney during the primaries, where Romney only got 25% of the vote. Although I seriously doubt Obama can swing Missouri over to blue.

    • Perry Lin
      Posted October 2, 2012 at 1:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Pundits seem to overestimate the GOP surge in Missouri. Yes, the state has gotten more red. However, remember that Mccain only carried the state by .1%. Bush won by 3% in 2004 despite several polls putting him ahead by 5-6 points. It would be hard to imagine Romney winning the state by more than 4-5 points. A 2-3 point win seems more likely given that Mitt is not the favored son of the critically important Evangelical base in the state. If you look at the polls pre-Akin rape comments, Mitt underpolled Akin by considerable margins. The senate race is close and will be a nail-biter. The money will not be as big of an issue as everyone makes it out to be. Akin’s path to victory lies in Southwest Missouri. He needs to mobilize, and bring back the right leaning independents. If he can move from the low 60’s there to the mid-to-high 60’s there on election day, Akin will win.

  3. Posted October 2, 2012 at 1:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Missouri is a quiet, weird state (I live here) and we enjoyed our bellweather status until 2008. Missouri is quite happy and capable of electing a republican president, state house and senate, and then go out and vote for a democrat for governor and senate.

    Basically Missouri has always been dominated by Kansas City and St. Louis. You had to win one or both or you lost statewide. Matt Blunt in 2004 proved that was not the case. He lost both major cities and still won the governors office by a large margin. The cities have been vacated in droves the last 10-15 years. As their population drops and the suburbs grow with more economically conscious (and conservative) the focus for republicans has always been to try and win the rural area and nip enough from the burbs to win.

    With Akin, a man I have worked with politicially and honestly do not like as a person or politician despite us being of the same party, he has represented those outlying areas of St. Louis for years and will have that support. He is wildy religious and conservative which appeals to most of the state. In Missouri abortion is in no way, shape or form a republican or democrat issue. It is the epitomy of making for strange bed fellows. In the legislature with 163 house members an anti-abortion bill will pull nearly 120 votes. So his comments will more than likely be forgiven come election day.

    Short of a 2000 style st. louis machine attempt at stealing an election (keeping polls in overwhelming black and democrat areas open 3 hours later than legally allowed)…i do think Akin still has a legit shot at winning this seat.

    Every year since 2002 when the republicans took the Missouri house for the first time in 50+ years they have added seats. As of 2010 they control 108 of 163 house and 26 of 34 senate. More than likely Romney wins, Akin wins and Democrat Governor Jay Nixon wins huge mainly because he has campaigned as a conservative and has disavowed himself of everything democrat.

  4. No Tribe
    Posted October 2, 2012 at 2:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama up 11% in new Ask America poll there in Nevada. I don’t even know who We Ask America is, does anyone here?

    But yea, I can’t believe they published this poll. It makes them look like a joke.

    Obama won Independents in Nevada 54-41 in 2008. He won the state by a 55 – 43 margin. 13% lead among Independents, 12% lead overall.
    RDI was 30-38-32

    In this poll, Romney is winning the Independent vote 51 – 35. Obama is leading the poll 53 – 42. 16% lead among Independents, 11% loss overall.

    What could possibly be the RDI to come up with such a insane result?

    Yes, it is a pretty Republican polling firm. Illinois Manufactures Association political donations over the last several cycles.

    449 Republicans get $1,453,245 for 89.44% of total contributions, 2004 to 2012.

    Also employing 33 lobbyists in Illinois to the tune of $1,173,344 from 2006 to 2011.

  5. Posted October 2, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

    i think part of our problem is…we refuse to believe in the mass stupity of America. We are hoping against hope these polls are skewed, rigged, wrong, etc….when the real answer may be that America has finally crossed the threshhold where more than 50% of our country are stupid. More than 50% believe it is the governments job to proivde everything in their life. More than 50% that believe being rich is evil and you stole it unless you are of the liberal persuasion (How many chinese factory stories have you heard bashing Steve Jobs and Apple?). America has finally crossed the point of no return, next stop Idiocracy.

    That is all I can come up with.

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 2, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Shane, watch this month. Things are about to radically shift to Romney’s favor.

  6. No Tribe
    Posted October 2, 2012 at 2:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I did the math and reverse engined the poll. I have to assume something, so I will assume that Independents in this WAA poll are 32% in ’12, same as in ’08. Comes out:

    Republican- 26%
    Democratic- 42%
    Independent- 32%

    The RDI advantage:

    ’04- +4 Republican (a toss-up year)
    ’08- +8 Democratic (Obama’s big year)
    ’12- +16 Democratic (according to WAA in this ’12 Nevada poll)

    • No Tribe
      Posted October 2, 2012 at 3:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      We can also unskew the poll, and based on this being Nevada, where Romney will win the Mormon vote with big turnout and lopsided results, I’ll go with the following:

      Republican- 33
      Democratic- 35

      Which gives the result:

      Obama- 48.06

      Of the remaining, 1.5% go to Independents, and the undecideds break 3:1 against the incumbent, for a 49.5 – 49 result.

      Makes just as much sense as WAA.

    • David Weed
      Posted October 2, 2012 at 4:01 pm | Permalink | Reply

      It’s an awful lot of Math to get the results you want, No Tribe.

  7. Posted October 2, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Permalink | Reply

    basically it boils down to if Romney is within 1 point nationall on election morning he has a shot. If he is not within 3 points in any state he has no shot to take it. There is only so much turnout can overcome.

    • Posted October 2, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

      this race is shaping up, depending on how the next couple weeks pan out, to be a Scott Rasmussen vs the world race. He is either set to be the best more accurate pollster or the crazy outlier.
      Obama went from an RCP average of +3 to +4 over the course of the day. The polls are just all over the place Obama +1 to Obama +9.

      I think the american electorate is playing a sick cat and mouse game with pollsters 🙂

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