State of the Battlegrounds: Six Toss-ups and Three Leaners for Obama — Stu Rothenberg

Jon Ralston blogs about the latest assessment of the Battleground states from Stu Rothenberg who drops North Carolina (Romney), Michigan (Obama) and Pennsylvania (Obama) from the discussion leaving only 6 toss-ups and Obama crossing 270 electoral votes with Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin as leaners:

In the latest edition of his weekly report, nationally respected pundit Stu Rothenberg says there are only 54 electoral votes in five states that are up in the air now — and Nevada’s six are among them.

Rothenberg has the count at 278 electoral votes for President Obama (237 solid and 41 lean) and 206 for Mitt Romney (191 solid and 15 lean). The remaining 54 are: Nevada (6), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4).

Of course, if Rothenberg’s count proves prescient, Nevada will not be a factor because Obama already has the 270 needed to win. But because the three “Lean Obama” states — Ohio (18), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10) — are relatively uncertain, any one of them going the other way could put Obama under 270. It is interesting that Nevada remains in the toss-up category despite no public poll showing Romney ahead — although many that have been released indicate the race is within the margin of error.

2 Comments

  1. Posted October 2, 2012 at 2:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Someone, ANYONE, explain America to me 🙂

    2008 we come out in drove to elect Barack Obama
    2010 we come out in pretty good numbers to throw out his Democrat House and first female speaker
    2010 (2011 cant remember) the State of Ohio elected republican governor and voted to REPEAL Obamacare 2-1
    2012 the US and Ohio according to the polls are set to re-elect Barach Obama?

    Pennsylvania throws out many of their democrat congress and elect state house and senate and governor and are poised to re-elect Obama by a huge margin

    Teh list goes….please god almighty someone explain this ADHD country we have.

    • Posted October 2, 2012 at 3:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Shane your dates are a little off. The volatility in the electorate goes back to 2004.
      We were a 50/50 nation but had a record turnout of Republicans leaving big majorities in the House and 55/56 Senate seats. Unfortunately for the country both political parties were some of the worst this country has known ever.

      Two cycles to fire Republicans:
      2 years later the country throws out the Republicans and turns over majorities in both Houses.
      In 2008 a record turnout for the Democrats leaves incredible majorities in the House and filibuster proof Senate.

      Two cycles to fire Democrats:
      2 years later Republicans turn out in droves with historic turnover in the House of Representatives as well as at the state level. The Senate stayed with the Democrats largely out of their #s advantage (few Dem seats up that cycle).
      Despite ushering in strong Republican majorities in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia (among others) in Nov 2010, Governors like Kasich overreach and in November 2011 his elimination of public sector unions gets repealed by 61% in a pro-Union vote. On the same ballot was a symbolic vote to repeal Obamacare which got 68% of the vote.

      The short version in my opinion is for the last 10-15 years the political class in this country has sucked. That means both parties. To rise to the top, skilled but unprincipled politicians parlayed favors to achieve power for the sake of their own power and not any public service agenda. The American public has basically been shooting for a complete turnover of the entire political class following the 2004 election. It is truly unbelievable to look at the turnover in Congress from Nov 1 2006 to Nov 3 2010. Over a four year period (3 elections) I would wager 80-90% of Congress was fired/retired/etc.

      Effectively the political class of 2004 was one of the worst in a century but the public can only take down one party at a time. 2006 and 2008 was the Republicans turn in the barrel. 2010 and supposedly 2012 is Democrats turn in the barrel. If not for Republican incompetence in 2010 (Angle in Nevada, O’Donnell in Delaware and Rossi in Washington) and 2012 (Akin in Missouri, Mack in Florida and some others) we would be looking at GOP majorities as far as the eye can see.

      I do not believe the public is schizophrenic as much as the wheels of democracy move slow and our political class has sucked for the last 10 years. The situation is getting better today but it is slow moving.

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