Obama +3 in Florida — Suffolk University

The latest survey from the Sunshine State shows a tight race with the President well below 50% one month before the election but plenty of Undecided voters out there. I rolled the 3rd  parties into other since no one was higher than 1% in the survey.  The party ID was D +5  (Dem 42, Rep 37, Ind 21).  This compares to 2008 of D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and 2004 of R +4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23):

President Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by 3 percentage points (46 percent to 43 percent, with 7 percent undecided), according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS poll of likely voters in Florida. That’s a statistical tie, since the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.  The results are similar to other recent polls, which found the Florida race tied or Obama slightly ahead.

“On the eve of the first debate, both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney know the importance of each percentage point in a state like Florida,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Not only are the remaining undecided voters critical, but so are the voters of all the third-party candidates here – and there are many.” In Florida’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson leads Republican Connie Mack 40 percent to 34 percent, the poll found.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 46
Mitt Romney 43
Other 3
Undecided 7


  1. jeff
    Posted October 2, 2012 at 7:21 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Again a stupid poll based on oversampling Ds. Florida is almost certainly in the bag for Romney and I suspect Obamas internals are showing a losing race. The magic of 2008 Is simply not there.

  2. JeffR
    Posted October 2, 2012 at 7:57 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I suspect that Florida will either be even or lean slightly GOP. D+5 ain’t happening, that’s for sure. If Obama is only +3 and needs a D+5 that means he’s losing independents here in Florida. I can tell you the ground game for Romney is unlike any I have seen in here in FL before. Observation tells me it will be closer to 2004 and if that’s the case then I expect Romney to win by 5 or more.

    • jeff
      Posted October 2, 2012 at 8:07 pm | Permalink | Reply

      If Romney wins Fl with a 5 point spread I suspect he will also win the election.

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