NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll Shows Tight Race; Obama +3

The absurd 6-8 point leads for Obama has dissipated as many of us told you they would since in reality the leads were never that high to begin win. President Obama leads 49 to 46 in the latest NBC/WSJ national poll while three percent remain Undecided and two percent chose one of the third parties.  The party ID was D +6 (Dem 32, Rep 26, Ind 40).  That’s too few Republicans and likely too many Independents. Reminder 2008 was D +7 and 2004 was perfectly even between the two parties.

A lot of interesting internals:

  • Right track/Wrong track is under water at 40/43
  • Obama Job Approval positive at 49 Approve/48 Disapprove
  • Approval on handling the economy remains under water at 46 Approve/51 Disapprove
  • Approval on handling foreign policy continues to take a hit with 49 Approve/ 46 Disapprove. In Mid-August he was 54/40
  • Only 44% think the economy will improve over the next 12 months
  • However 57% think the economy is recovering while 39% think it is not recovering
  • Net Disapproval over Obama’s handling of the Embassy attacks: 45 Approve/46 Disapprove
  • Are you better off than four years ago? 37% Better/40% Worse
  • Mitt Romney rates 1% higher on handling the economy but Barack Obama leads by 13% on leading the country
  • Both candidates have similar support of their base with 81% definitely voting for Romney and 80% definitely voting for Obama
  • From Adrian Gray: NBC/WSJ sample had been 16% age 18-29 for last four polls. Now 21%? (was 18% in 2008)


  1. Posted October 2, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    That damn Gallup poll and its O+6 is pissing me off. Supposedly Gallup will switch to LV this month. LV polls usually help republicans, but I remember Gallup switching to a LV model in 2008 and it didnt help McCain. I get the distinct feeling when Gallup switches to LV, Gallup will show Obama +3, to fall in line with the other current LV polls.

    @Greymarch (on twitter)

    • jeff
      Posted October 2, 2012 at 7:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Gallup is walking a tightrope in its polling ever since axlerod threatened to sue
      It is no coincidence that before axlerods intervention Gallups numbers showed a comsistent even race or Romney slightly ahead

      • WillBest
        Posted October 2, 2012 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

        No they had Obama by +17 or so in one of their daily samples. It is clearly an outlier and will fall out Wednesday where it will fall from 6% down to 3%. That is if Gallup doesn’t switch to likely voters which they are supposed to do this week

    • Posted October 3, 2012 at 12:02 am | Permalink | Reply

      Yeah Gallup had a ridiculous few days where both the head-to-head and Obama Approval blew out from a tie to Obama up 7-9 in like a day. Suggestive of a screwy sample for those few days. Unfortunately because it’s a 7 day track, those O+infinity days haven’t washed out of the system yet. Hence you still see it at Obama up 4-6.

      His Approval rating is only 3 day tracking and collapsed back to an effective tie the past few days, expect head to head to follow.

  2. jeff
    Posted October 2, 2012 at 7:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Based in their oversampling of Ds the real numbers would show a dead even race or Romney with a slight lead.

  3. housebroken dad
    Posted October 2, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Agree jeff. O +3 with a D+6 electorate and only 26% republicans? I’m giddy over this one.

  4. Posted October 2, 2012 at 8:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Boom! New national journal poll has the race tied. http://www.nationaljournal.com/

    • Posted October 2, 2012 at 8:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Internals are even worse for Obama. Party ID was D +7. Non-White support nominally higher than normal but White support at 38% is major danger zone. Doubly bad is the 38% support is with 7% too many Democrats … ouch.

  5. Posted October 3, 2012 at 12:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    I keep hearing that the increased independents are all these republicans embarrassed to call themselves republicans and hiding in the independent column….UMMM how does that reconcile with pretty significant increases in Republican registrations and decreases in Democrats? Could we ACTUALLY be seeing DEMOCRATS hiding in the independent column to give them cover to vote against Obama?

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