Voter Registrations Drop 490,000 in Ohio

I blogged this yesterday, but the post got lost somewhere in cyberspace.  This was rightfully a much talked about story considering the importance of Ohio to both campaigns:

Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from four years ago. Of that reduction, 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.

“I think what we’re seeing is a lot of spin and hype on the part of the Obama campaign to try to make it appear that they’re going to cruise to victory in Ohio,” Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost said. “It’s not just Cuyahoga County. Nearly 350,000 of those voters are the decrease in the rolls in the three largest counties, Cuyahoga, Hamilton and Franklin.” Frost points out that those three counties all contain urban centers, where the largest Democrat vote traditionally has been.

Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent. The Third Way study, which was conducted in August, indicates the Democrats’ drop in registered voters coincides with a gain in independent voters.”There are about half a million more independents now than there were just for years ago,” Diggles said.

The Romney campaign has made over 3,000,000 voter contacts in Ohio and has been aggressive in voter registration efforts throughout the election cycle.  This has kept their registration numbers up while Democrats hemorrhage voters.

The party breakdown is difficult because Ohio does not register voters by party so the geography mentioned in the article is hugely important and the basis for much of the GOP confidence in these changes.


  1. Posted October 1, 2012 at 12:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    This is great information regarding registration data, and encouraging to Romney’s prospects. Still, this morning Rasmussen, perhaps the most respectable pollster, has Obama up by three nationally and by four in the swing states. How is one to reconcile this apparently conflicting data? Which source provides the more realistic evidence-based argument for the final outcome — at least at this point in time?

    • Posted October 1, 2012 at 2:45 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Polls are simply a snapshot in time. The race is very close to it is very easy where one day Romney is ahead by one or two and the next day Obama is ahead by one or two. At the same time voters opinions in the middle are very volatile so they may change allegiances at the drop of a hat. Nothing wrong with the swings in the results Rasmussen is getting. It simply means he’s doing honest sampling and the results change within his margin of error.

    • AussieMarcus
      Posted October 2, 2012 at 6:21 am | Permalink | Reply

      Rasmussen has this weird pattern where it swings to Obama in weekend polls and swings back to Romney on weekdays.

      So Mon/Tues/Wed polls with both Sat and Sun in them are good for Obama, Thurs-Sat polls made up entirely of midweek days are good for Romney.

      No idea why, just is.

  2. Posted October 1, 2012 at 12:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think three is realistic. We need to keep it with two, I think, at which point the ground game could win it for us.

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