Ohio +9 in Ohio — Columbus Dispatch

This is a mail-in poll so the only defense for the Columbus Dispatch is they are at the mercy of whomever sends back the poll which does reveal something about the intensity of the vote.  The Party ID was Democrats 43.25%, Republicans 34.5% and Independents 19.5% for a D +8.75% split.  So in a poll where Obama leads by 9% the party identification spread is also 9%.  Pretty much tells you everything you need to know about the poll. The party ID in 2008 was D +8 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and in 2004 it was R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25). This poll contrasts the 45-45 tie by the Columbus Dispatch in August when party ID was split evenly between the parties.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 42
Other 3
Undecided 5

Smart observation from Byron York disabusing any notion this poll is remotely accurate:

One weird thing in CD poll: Look at breakdowns, and you’ll learn that John Kasich wasn’t elected governor in 2010.

One Comment

  1. Posted October 1, 2012 at 3:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Also interesting to note that 4% of those polled did not vote in 2008, 7% did not vote in 2010.

    Also the polls was 52% women, 85% white. and yes 4.25% more democrats than in 2008. Now it also included 3.5% more republicans but also 10.5% FEWER independents than the actual turn out in 2008.

    Byron York is correct of those polled voted for Strickland 39-37 with 7% of those polled (as mentioned above) didnt even vote in 2010.

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