HAHAHAHAHA Washington Post Swing State Poll was 161 People

I may just poll my comment section and pass that off as a Battleground State poll.  The Washington Post explained that rather curious “Swing State” subsection in today’s national poll where Obama had an incredible 11-point lead relative to his national lead of only 2-points:

The WaPo-ABC ‘swing state’ poll numbers, explained

Monday’s Washington Post-ABC News poll adds to the evidence of an emerging, important dynamic in the presidential contest showing closer parity nationally than in key battleground states, where President Obama has had clear leads.

The designated swing states were: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Wisconsin

Pulling out respondents in these eight states — all of which Obama won in 2008 — from the new national poll, shows Obama at 52 percent and Romney at 41 among likely voters. We report these numbers to help connect the dots between the clear Obama leads in the collection of states and the continued closer parity nationally, not to suggest pinpoint precision on what’s happening now in any particular state.

Out of 929 registered voters in the new poll, 161 live in one of these eight states, with a margin of sampling error of eight points. The likely voter sample in these states is about nine points, making the 11-point gap an apparent edge. That margin is significant at the 80 percent confidence level, not a standard, conservative 95 percent threshold

This wholly unreliable subset is the basis for inclusion in an otherwise credible national survey. This has to be one of the more embarrassing media contortions by the media to put Obama in the most favorable light possible. Remember, they are not journalists who vote for Democrats. They are open advocates for one candidate.


  1. WillBest
    Posted October 1, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    By my estimate that means the MoE was 8-9% at the 95% confidence level, so in fact their data is consistent.

  2. Posted October 1, 2012 at 5:19 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In all my statistics classes as two different universities under two different degrees and in working on multiple political races and dealing with hundreds of polls that any margin of error over 4% is worthless.

    That said you are right to say 161 people out of another sample set is some how the feeling of the swing states is just bad bad bad polling and ethically BS

  3. Pete
    Posted October 1, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink | Reply

    But Krauthammer said the polls show the state of the race, what about that? (sarc)

  4. No Tribe
    Posted October 1, 2012 at 5:27 pm | Permalink | Reply

    lmao, a MoE of 20

    Look, I think they are just foolish.

  5. No Tribe
    Posted October 1, 2012 at 5:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Excellent national polling day for Romney, 47 in three straight polls, Obama stuck at 49.1. The national average is probably going to 1-2% difference on RCP by Thursday.

  6. John Fisher
    Posted October 1, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Heard Michael Barone on Medved this afternoon. His gut feel is that Romney will win by about the same margin as Obama won in 2008.

    • Posted October 1, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

      i think this race is a 50.5 – 49.5 race….i just don’t see if blowing out either way.

      My fear at this point…is I think there is a real chance Romney wins the popular vote by a chunk and loses the electoral college. And basically we republicans will have to STFU about it because of Bush ’00. That scenario does send a GIANT MASSIVE NO CONFIDENCE to Obama

      • No Tribe
        Posted October 1, 2012 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

        Funny, I think the exact opposite is going to happen.

  7. No Tribe
    Posted October 1, 2012 at 7:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Romney leads independents 49-41 in the new CNN poll.

    • Posted October 1, 2012 at 8:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Yea, that poll has typically absurd samplings with nutty internals. It’s the exact type of poll I’m talking about in the essay on what these polls oversampling Democrats mask. That 8-point margin is enormous good news for Romney, but only through the magic of an 11 point over-sampling of Democrats do they achieve a result they feel they can publish. All-in that is a very bad poll for Obama (73% support with non-Whites). But due to all the bogus things about the poll, I don’t find it credible enough to blog. And I’ve spent too much time mocking national polls as it is.

  8. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted October 1, 2012 at 8:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    49-41, that leaves 10% undecided. we dont want it to be 51-49 Obama — the odds of that having is very remote, fortunately.

  9. Posted October 1, 2012 at 9:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

    In the cnn poll, when 3rd party candidates are added to the mix obama only gets 37% of the white vote. I’ve noticed in other polls too that when they third party is included it usually doesn’t hurt Romney at worst it’s a wash. I think white voters are obviously quicker to bail on Obama and will either not vote or vote for a third party. It’s going to be a blow out, Romney 300+ EV and I think about 52-47. The media is doing a really good job of making everyone second guess. I don’t know any republicans who wouldn’t walk through fire to vote this time around. Dems have no Obama Successes to be motivated about, Romney isn’t a hard core conservative that will cause them to get fired up enough to turnout anywhere near what they did last time. On the other hand Obama is the reason why it will be a record republican turnout.

    • Posted October 1, 2012 at 10:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I noticed that too. Very curious result there. If Obama’s number is 37% with a Democrat oversampling of 11%, he is going to have serious trouble on election day. Just have to get Romney to “make the sale” and get people to vote for him and not just against Obama.

  10. JediJones
    Posted October 2, 2012 at 12:02 am | Permalink | Reply

    I learned in statistics class in college that if you don’t have about 1,000 people in your sample, the poll is meaningless. They would have needed about 10,000 people in the original poll to make a swing state subset sample meaningful.

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] […]

  2. […] demos: This toss-up group was nearly 40% of the entire survey which contrasts greatly from the inconceivably small subset from the Washington Post yesterday. 76% of respondents were from the middle class, 19% lower class and 4% were upper class. […]

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