Entire Narrative of the Election Could Change This Week … and Not Because of the Debate

There isn’t a poll out there that doesn’t have some combination of the economy, jobs and the deficit as by far the paramount issues in this election. Often these are rolled into a general theme of simply the economy and there isn’t another issue even on the radar beyond this topic. This coming week the political press will focus on the October 3 debate but a series of economic data will hit the news wires all week that likely will have an even greater chance of impacting the ballot box decisions. Any number of times we have blogged Obama’s Achilles heel which is the economy and lately the economic data is showing an economy today in the same disrepair as when he took office.   Four years into his Presidency and the country is in many places as bad or worse off than how he found it despite his trillion dollar stimulus, $5 trillion increase in the federal deficit and a sweeping overhaul in our healthcare (Obamacare) that raises costs while lowering quality.  Mitt Romney needs to perform well in the debate, but the looming avalanche of economic data this week could easily overwhelm any narrative coming from out of the debate. Business Insider runs through the week ahead in economic news:

Highlights:

  • Chinese Markets closed for Golden Week
  • Central Bank Decisions from Aussie, BOE, ECB and BOJ
  • Big Ben speaks, and the Minutes from the September meeting
  • Global PMI Data – China, EU, UK, USA
  • September Auto Sales and Retailer Same Store Sales
  • US and EU Employment reports
  • A Big Spanish Bond Auction
  • Value Investing Conference – Major HF speakers
  • European Banking Authority – final report on capital plans
  • The First debate between Gov. Romney and President Obama

Economic Calendar:

MONDAY: It’s global PMI day. So starting late Sunday night in the US, we’ll be getting critical manufacturing reports from Asia, and then Europe, and then of course the US, concluding with the US at 10:00 AM ET. Also at 10:00 AM ET we get Construction Spending for October. There’s also going to be a monetary policy speech by Bernanke, a speech by the head of the SF Fed.

TUESDAY: In the US we get September Auto & Truck Sales, which should provide a critical gauge of the state of the jobs market. The Aussie Central Bank will also act. And we get the New York ISM report.

WEDNESDAY: We get our first big preview of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, with the ADP jobs report, coming out at 9:15 AM ET. It’s also non-manufacturing PMI day, so we’ll get numbers from China, Europe, and the US. Wednesday night of course is also the night of the first debate between Romney and Obama. Everyone will be watching.

THURSDAY: The all-important Initial Jobless Claims number comes out at 8:30 AM ET. In Europe, there will be rate decisions from the BoE and the ECB (the press conference should be most interesting), and there will be bond auctions in Spain and France. Later in the day, there will be a speech from Fed Governor Bullard.

FRIDAY: The week ends with the Grande Finale of economic data: The September Jobs Report. This needs no hyping of course. Also at 3 PM ET that day, August Consumer Credit is revealed.

7 Comments

  1. Ranger375
    Posted September 30, 2012 at 2:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    However — are people going to pay attention to what comes out? It seems that it is just not happening — if it were you would think there would be more of an uproar – at the least from the middle.

    • shane
      Posted September 30, 2012 at 3:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Bigger issue is how will the media spin any and all negative info as “continued signs of recovery”

      • margaret
        Posted September 30, 2012 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

        I concur. If there’s bad news on the economic front or the foreign front, we see the media try to hide it or spin it for Obama. “Look over there, it’s another Romney gaffe!”

  2. WillBest
    Posted September 30, 2012 at 5:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think Libya runs a real big chance at breaking through this week, and apparently Obama got in Univision’s crawl because they are going after him on FnF.

    It really is a shame Univision didn’t win its bid to get a debate because they are the only network to actually ask him a tough question.

    • shane
      Posted September 30, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I’m.hoping the media’s love of drama in.October.will cause them.to.nail.hion Libya bad jobs etc

  3. shane
    Posted September 30, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink | Reply

    My prediction is this week locks up the race…if these economic indicators suck ass and Romney breaks even in.the debate game over Obama.

    If the numbers show signs of legit positive direction…game over Romney. The people will stick with him.

    • ed
      Posted September 30, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think your right. Romney is positioned well.

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