Obama +7 in Pennsylvania — Muhlenberg College

Pennsylvania remains within striking distance.  Romney had a raucous rally in the state after scooping up some cash.  This will be a fun state to taunt the media with if it flips on election day.The President maintains a nice lead for a Battleground State at 7-points but there are a few extra factors at play making things more interesting than they seemed just a few short weeks ago.  This is one of the few states where the down ballot candidate might actually provide a rising tide for the top of the ticket.  GOP Senate challenger Tom Smith is showing a sneaky competitiveness against famous son Bob Casey Jr.  This race was supposed to be a walk for Casey but Smith is proving to be far more formidable than the conventional wisdom assumed.  He trails by 8 in this survey, but that’s down from 18-points 45 days ago and other surveys confirm his surging acceptance by the Keystone public.  This type of momentum was expected from a candidate like a Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin who is proving to be less than helpful to the Romney campaign, but Tom Smith is a race to watch.

Party ID doesn’t factor in as they surveyed by party registration and although a D +9 split might look high, it is an accurate reflection in Pennsylvania party registrations.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 42
Other 4
Undecided 5

Number of Interviews: 427 Likely Voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
Margin of Error: +/-5% at a 95% level of confidence
Fielding Dates – September 22 – 26, 2012


  1. JeffR
    Posted September 29, 2012 at 8:37 am | Permalink | Reply

    True, D+9 does reflect registrations, but what of turnout? I think a huge problem in Penn is where you sample Democrats. It seems to me that there are Democrats in western Penn that are more likely to switch sides. Then there’s a question of black turnout in Philly.

    Any idea what the turnout was in 2000, 2004, 2008 and how the off years reflect on the presidential year turnouts?

    Another key here is the coal meme Romney has up in the area. Realistically he can buy in Pittsburgh and get play in eastern Ohio, so it’s money well spent in Pitt and Erie markets because western Penn can lean his way and it’ll also get into eastern Ohio.

    • No Tribe
      Posted September 29, 2012 at 1:48 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Especially during Steelers games. If there’s not a blanket of ads on the radio station for the Oct 21st Bengals vs Steelers game I’d be shocked.

  2. Timothy
    Posted September 29, 2012 at 11:21 am | Permalink | Reply

    I think it’s a safe bet to say that the 4% “Other” are at least 2% of people who don’t want to say they are voting againt Barack. “Other” always polls way too high in pre-election polls, and it’s doubtful that anyone who says they’ll vote for “Other” will ever vote for Barack (or Gary Johnson, etc.).

    • No Tribe
      Posted September 29, 2012 at 1:50 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Agreed, that’s the important number to look at with Obama. He’s going to get at most, 1% higher than is poll number, or right at his poll number. So he’s at 49-50 in Pennsylvania.

  3. Posted September 29, 2012 at 2:02 pm | Permalink | Reply

    You keep confusing party ID with party registration. Two different things.

    • shane
      Posted September 29, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Peter, I get your point and your right but I think they mean the D+9 in party Id matches or is ver close to the D vs R registration advantage on Penn. So an overwhelming amount of Dems is expected and reasonable.

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