Obama +4 in Iowa — Des Moines Register

That latest in Iowa from the Des Moines Register shows a tightly competitive race Obama enjoying a 4 points lead inside the margin of error.  Only the top-lines results have been released but hopefully we’ll have more details tomorrow:

President Barack Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney 49 percent to 45 percent in the battleground state of Iowa, a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll has found. Almost all likely voters in Iowa have made their choices. Four percent support someone other than the two major party candidates. Just 2 percent remain undecided, the poll shows. But 10 percent say they could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate, the poll found, and that represents an opening for Romney. Another opportunity: persuading more Iowans he can fix the economy, viewed by likely voters in the poll as a priority issue. The Iowa Poll is a Register exclusive since 1943. The new poll was conducted Sept. 23-26 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. It surveyed 800 Iowa adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Election questions were asked of 650 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 45
Other 4
Undecided 2

8 Comments

  1. Evan3457
    Posted September 29, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Unless I’m misreading something, or they left something out, that’s too many likely voters in a poll of 800 adults. They’re saying 81+% of adults are likely voters. That never happens.

  2. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted September 29, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Obama carried Iowa by 9.5% in 2008. I think if you analyzed the current state by state leads in the flawed polls.
    there is one inescapable conclusion is that there is a 5-6% drop in obama support in this election.

    Virginia went for BO by 6.3% (i’ve been visiting VA and the Alexandria-C’ville corridor is Romney-Allen strong)
    Wisconsin went for BO by 5.9%
    Ohio went for BO by 4%
    Florida went for BO by 2.5%
    Indiana went for BO by 0.9%
    NC went for BO by 0.4%

    — all these states will flip for Romney

    • WillBest
      Posted September 29, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

      While it is true that Obama is under polling his 2008 numbers by an average of 5% in each state, that excludes undecideds. If undecideds break 50/50 Obama he would not in fact lose any state except NC and IN.

      • No Tribe
        Posted September 29, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

        Will, I don’t think undecideds will break to Obama at that rate. Even his campaign admits that he needs to be at 48-49 to win the state in the polls. He usually topped out with his poll number, unless it was a high black vote that tilted over the turnout model, and that isn’t gonna happen in ’12.

        My rule is to give Obama a 0-1 bump above his final poll number, regardless of the undecideds. Right now, that gives us:

        North Carolina 47.8
        Iowa 48.5
        Virginia 48.7
        New Hampshire 48.7
        Colorado 48.7
        Nevada 49
        Florida 49.3
        Ohio 49.3
        Wisconsin 51.5

        I don’t think these states are in play right now, but these are places where I think you could expect a 50-50 split:

        Minnesota 49.7
        Pennsylvania 49.9
        New Mexico 50
        Oregon 50
        Michigan 51.2

        This is basically Obama’s highwater mark, and he’s still barely ahead.

    • Ranger375
      Posted September 30, 2012 at 3:38 am | Permalink | Reply

      Hoping you are correct about them flipping. Seems there could be some surprised liberals on November 7th if it happens.

  3. Chad
    Posted September 30, 2012 at 7:46 am | Permalink | Reply

    Obama actually won Wisconsin by 14%! Not quite 5.9%.

  4. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted September 30, 2012 at 8:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    if Obama cant do better in Oregon and Michigan than 52% — states that he carried by 17% in 2008, then he should go ahead and close on his new home in Hawaii. he wouldnt want to move back to Chicago — too much gang violence in his hyde park neighborhood.

    hawaii is almost as expensive to live in as Chicago, but Obama probably has millions stashed away, and he’s got a couple more fiction books left to be ghostwritten by his buddy bill ayers

  5. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted September 30, 2012 at 10:35 am | Permalink | Reply

    thank you Chad — it was 13.9%

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