Obama +5 in New Hampshire — American Research Group

I’m always jealous of the “Live Free or Die” motto of New Hampshire.  It’s probably one of the reasons the state is so competitive in most elections — plenty of Independent thinkers. Romney is going to have to pick up his game with Independents as he trails the President 52 to 41. Overall President Obama maintains a 5-point lead 50 to 45 in a survey more reasonable than many previous ARG polls lately.  The Party ID was dead even at Dem 30, Rep 30, Ind 40 versus D +2 in 2008 (Dem 29, Rep 27, Ind 45) and R +7 in 2004 (Dem 25, Rep 32, Ind 44).

For President Percent
Barack Obama 50
Mitt Romney 45
Other 1
Undecided 4


  1. WillBest
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 4:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

    NH is an amazing state because if Romney can win it, it means he doesn’t need OH or WI. Hell he could even afford to somehow lose FL. Its an important 4 votes.

    • No Tribe
      Posted September 28, 2012 at 5:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I can’t see Romney putting together a map without Florida. I’d give that a 2% shot– Romney sweeping 8 states and losing Florida. He’s gotta win Florida. If there’s one state he has to win, that’s it. But, yea, I think he can win NH.

  2. wholefoodsrepublican
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 5:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    romney can’t lose florida and ohio. in fact, he cant lose either state. new hampshire is worth some time in getting out the vote. small state, big rewards…this is karl roves 3-2-1 model

  3. WillBest
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 6:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Well if he lost FL he would need to run the table on the battleground states.

    You are daft if you think he needs Ohio. There are 4-5 configurations without OH

  4. Mark2
    Posted September 29, 2012 at 7:53 am | Permalink | Reply

    Romney will not be elected without FL it has 29, it is the old OH, OH now has 18 goes down in EV every 4 years as people move from the rust belt. OH is still a bellweather for US as its demos match US as whole. There are many configurations but FL is the hub. Movement must start after each debate..FL then VA, OH is always late but R/R is weak there, will he get enough? R/R is looking for another state PA, it is early and started looking early..NH is not loving Obama this time, I travel there often and in NH it will come down to turnout and the Repubs are pumped with the Gov race too

  5. UncleFred
    Posted October 1, 2012 at 9:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

    So lets understand the NH electorate. The Republicans are the LARGEST self identified demographic, followed by the Democrats, followed by independents/other. Further NH is the target of the free state project, so a lot of the third group are others. If you see a poll where independents exceed either party those demographics are unsupportable. Under “normal” circumstances the free state project folks would vote libertarian. These are not normal times and the majority of Libertarians/free staters will hold their noses and vote for Romney and they will turnout.

    Romney wins NH by at least 5.

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