Obama +2 in Virginia — American Research Group

As the survey groups get more reasonable, the polls tighten … funny that.  The latest from American Research Group in Virginia shows President Obama with a 2-point lead 49 to 47. The party ID is below Obama’s 2008 turnout but still well off the 2004 result.

Party ID:
ARG: D +3, Dem 39, Rep 36, Ind 25
2008: D +6, Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 27
2004: R +4, Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 47
Other 1
Undecided 3


  1. WillBest
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I would believe it. DC is the only place in the country that has been thriving for the last 4 years. Demographics shift plus economic interests and I could see D+2/3 happening easily there. That state is clearly going to hinge on turnout.

  2. No Tribe
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 5:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Suffolk also at 2% in VA. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Suffolk_VA_0927.pdf

    Turnoutwise, it’s just not happening for Obama in NoVA. There is nothing like the ’08 presence. It’s is a low engaged voter place.

  3. JeffR
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 6:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I just don’t see that 39% happening again. I could see the D+3, but I think it more likely the Dems will sink down to 37 or 36. The problem is I think the GOP will be above 33%. They split the diff between 2004 and 2008 for the GOP but gave the Dems the same turnout. If we split the difference on both then we end up with 37/36/27 D/R/I – and I think a D+1 in Virginia or even an even turnout or a slight favor to the GOP is possible,

    Virginia is a hard one to guess. But it’s worth recalling that they took the state house in 2009 and expanded their majority just last year. They also took control of the state senate just last year. Same went for their House delegation, seeing the GOP pick up 3 seats, IIRC. That’s a strong trend towards the Republicans in Virginia.

  4. Pete
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’ve seen a few polls now out PA showing a 1-2 pt race. Drudge has a link now. How much longer before that is a battleground stat?

  5. JeffR
    Posted September 29, 2012 at 8:58 am | Permalink | Reply

    The key for Romney is to strengthen in Virginia and Colorado. If he can continue to have a money advantage, he may be able to force Obama to pull out in order to try to protect Pennsylvania.

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