Romney +1 in Iowa — TIR-Voter/Consumer Research

As the linked write-up says: Reports of Mitt Romney’s demise in Iowa may be greatly exaggerated. I’d bet any amount of money this state is mired in about a 46 – 46 tie and I thought it was pre-mature for NBC to move it to lean Obama.  One poll doesn’t make a trend but it does show there is plenty of fight left in the Hawkeye State for Mitt Romney and Republicans.

Party ID update: In my haste I missed this the first time.  This poll was R +1 (Dem 35, Rep 36, Ind 30).  This compares to 2008 that was D +1 (Dem 34, Rep 33, Ind 33) and 2004 that was R +2 (Dem 34, Rep 36, Ind 30).  So the party ID almost splits the baby with the slightest shade towards the GOP. Since only 3 points separate the 2 party IDs you can’t get it exactly in between.  Still the sample is between 2004 and 2008 which is where I think this election will fall so not a bad sample.

The stories of Mitt Romney’s demise in Iowa may be exaggerated.  While the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll results have caused NBC to move Iowa from being a toss-up to a lean Democrat state, a new TIR-Voter/Consumer Research poll suggests otherwise.  The poll of registered voters conducted between September 23rd and September 25th shows Romney with a one-point lead over President Obama in Iowa. Respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the election for president were held today.   Forty-seven percent chose Republican Mitt Romney, while 46 percent said Democrat Barack Obama.   Two percent said neither, one percent refused to answer, and only four percent of respondents were undecided…The TIR/VCR poll was comprised of 36 percent registered Republicans, 35 percent registered Democrats, and 30 percent no-party voters.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 46
Mitt Romney 47
Other 3
Undecided 4


  1. Posted September 27, 2012 at 7:00 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Any breakdowns for this one?

  2. margaret
    Posted September 27, 2012 at 7:04 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Early absentee returns in IA show a large percentage from Democrats and less from Republicans. Bad news you might think? Actually not. The IA Republicans seem to vote closer to election day. Back on October 29 2004, early ballot returns in IA showed a Dem ballot lead of 60,000. Yet Bush won Iowa a week later.

    I believe IA will also go for Romney. If Dems and Reps are tied, the indies will put Romney over.

    • John
      Posted September 27, 2012 at 7:33 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Any link to for the October 29, 2004?

  3. No Tribe
    Posted September 27, 2012 at 7:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    “I thought it was pre-mature for NBC to move it to lean Obama.”

    That’s sarcasm, right?

  4. bman77
    Posted September 27, 2012 at 8:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    What are the party breakdowns for this poll? Are realistic? Would help to know this for favorable Romney polls as well.

    • Posted September 27, 2012 at 8:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I wish I knew. The crosstabs were not provided so deeper analysis is unavailable.

  5. Posted September 27, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Also interesting to note this is a registerd voter poll not likely…which means the raise may be a touch wider then +1 for Romney.

    • jeff
      Posted September 27, 2012 at 10:41 pm | Permalink | Reply

      IA CO NC NV and Fl Will go Romney. These are normally red states. with the exception of IA that were a fluke in 2008. Despite the polls I think Va And NH. will likely go Romney. Even with the skewed polls BO Is still below 50. That says alot. The turnout has to be very strong for Romney to win OH. The good news us that the request for absantee ballots is favoring Republicans and the undersampled Indies are shifting to Romney.

  6. Mike
    Posted September 27, 2012 at 11:20 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Look guys, if REP voters decide to GOTV in mass WE WILL WIN, just remember 2010, and the TEA PARTY has not gone anywhere. Conservatives like me, are FIRED UP and SCARED of losing our country, and we will crawl over broken glass if we have to, to GOTV. As simple as that!!

  7. Posted September 28, 2012 at 12:24 am | Permalink | Reply

    dead on mike…this is like a coach saying we are unanimous underdogs only way we win is to go out and win. If we want this election then F the polls…F the media…republicans have to turn out at 2004 levels or higher to beat Obama. If we aren’t a minimum of 38% of the exit polling and final result we wont win.

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