Bleg: Need Help Finding Demographics in National Surveys

I don’t blog the national polls so I’m not as versed finding the data, digging through them and how the it is reported.  Is there a good site for the cross-tabs on these national surveys?  I have checked Real Clear Politics but the PDFs of the polls leave out some backup data.

What is am really looking for in these polls are two things:

1) What are the demographics by race of the survey?

2) How did these demographics vote?

What I am finding odd in the national surveys I researched is they will often give one or the other of these but never both.

I know what the numbers are supposed to look like but I want the backup data to prove out a few things I have swirling around in the back of my head.

Final note: the more unrealistic the sampling the better.  Those national polls where the party ID was D +8 or D +111 would be perfect if they provided the demographic information I’m looking for.

Feel free to post in the comments or email me at battlegroundwatch “at” gmail.com

Thanks!

12 Comments

  1. Mark2
    Posted September 27, 2012 at 8:58 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Battleground poll has excellent cross tabs and will post them for each poll performed.

  2. Michael
    Posted September 27, 2012 at 9:05 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Try: http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/

  3. Posted September 27, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I recommend reading the comments section of The Hedgehog Report. Some extremely knowledgeable people on that site, obsessed with breaking-down EVERY state and national poll. http://www.hedgehogreport.com/

    @greymarch (on twitter)
    http://www.greymarch.com

  4. Posted September 27, 2012 at 9:38 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Pretty tedious to do. Even with the polls that do have the info, you usually have to dig…I know I have had to when finding data for my blog.

  5. Stephen
    Posted September 27, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I think if the election were held today a tie would be very possible.
    This would happen if:
    BO wins WI, MI, OH, PA, MN, and NH
    MR wins NV, CO, IA, FL, NC, VA
    This race is going to be very close, even if the media won’t say so.

    • margaret
      Posted September 27, 2012 at 10:59 pm | Permalink | Reply

      There’s a very interesting article at Redstate about this scenario:called “Barack Obama’s is fighting against Mitt Romney and the Electoral College and losing”.

      http://tinyurl.com/8s96rmy

      Excerpt:
      “Barack Obama has a much more difficult time acquiring 270 Electoral College votes necessary then he did in 2008 or Kerry did in 2004. In this election year Mitt Romney does not need to win Ohio or New Mexico OR any state that the loser, John Kerry, won in 2004. Romney does not need to win Wisconsin. Why? Because of the 2010 census, there are changes in the Electoral College. This benefits Republicans. All Mitt Romney needs to do is, as they say in tennis, “hold serve”. Romney needs only 269 votes (a tie) and a Republican House of Representatives. ”

      Here’s their winning map:
      http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=BqL

      • No Tribe
        Posted September 28, 2012 at 10:00 am | Permalink

        I think a tie is very possible too, though I have a different map to get there:

        NH 269
        Romney- FL, NC, OH, IA, NV, NH

        Iowa 269
        Romney- FL, NC, OH, IA, WI

        Nevada 269
        Romney-Fl, NC, OH, WI, NV

        Virginia not Ohio 269
        Romney- FL, NC, VA, IA, CO, NV

        Those are the 269 combinations. I wouldn’t write it off from happening. In fact, I’d give it about a 20% chance at this point.

        But if Romney wins North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio and Florida, that really about locks it up for him. He just needs any of NV, CO, IA, WI, or NH.

        So I think we’ll see Romney mostly in OH, FL and VA, and they will just figure one of those other 5 goes with him too.

    • Mark2
      Posted September 27, 2012 at 11:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I would scratch NH from Obama and WI will be close..

      • margaret
        Posted September 28, 2012 at 12:36 am | Permalink

        I agree about NH off Obama’s list. I read last week that Bob Beckel on Obama’s team, appearing on some talk show, just about conceded NH. I’m hoping for WI to come over to Republicans due to Paul Ryan (and Scott Walker) but could be a squeaker.

  6. AussieMarcus
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 1:05 am | Permalink | Reply

    Conceded NH??

    Aren’t Colorado, Florida, Virginia etc more Republican than New Hampshire??? If they’re “conceding” there, then…..??

    • WillBest
      Posted September 28, 2012 at 9:10 am | Permalink | Reply

      Its an expensive 4 electoral votes

  7. No Tribe
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 10:16 am | Permalink | Reply

    Average error:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-methodology.html

    So, nationally, average error for polls is 2.8 and for state polls is 3.8

    States inside 3.8 are more then plenty for Romney to win.

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