Obama +4.7 or only +0.4 in Colorado (I’m serious about the 2 results in the same poll) — Gravis Marketing

This is a funky poll so I encourage you to click on the poll itself to see the numbers for yourself.

Reading the write-up, Gravis marketing  gives Barack Obama a 4.7-point lead among likely voters 50.2 to 45.5.  Their next statement reveals a subset of “very likely” voters giving Obama a 2.2-point lead (45.6 to 43.4).  Then when you look at survey question 1 you see among the very likely voters only 45.4 “very likely” support Obama and 45.0 “very likely” support Romney.  After that support softens for both candidates but mostly for Obama because he has more additional voters expressing some level of support.  It appears their top-line results of a 4.7 point lead includes a lot of admitted soft support and the 45.4 to 45 result are the votes both sides can count on with any certainty.  They even concede that although 4.3% of voters are Undecided in their top-line result, in the Gravis write-up they mention that number is probably low considering another 2.8% of voters were only somewhat of a preference for the designated candidate. Got that?

Inside the numbers we see Romney has locked up the Republican vote at 86.8% support whereas Obama shows some weakness (but also opportunity) with only 77% of the Democrat vote. It looks like Obama has a big edge with Independents at 50.4 to 28.6 — a whopping 21.8% margin.  I’d keep going but its hard to tell whether we are comparing apples-to-apples any longer and Obama’s Democrat support looks like with Romney’s Independent support looks low.  Anything is possible in Colorado which uniquely has had a Republican Party ID advantage in most every election in the modern era and even voted for Bob Dole over Bill Clinton in 1996 before trending Democrat and finally flipping in 2008.

3 Comments

  1. David
    Posted September 27, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Living in Colorado, I find out difficult to believe Obama is +21.8 with independents. Most independents in the state trend conservative. If my memory is correct, I believe in 2008 Obama was +10 with independents. Accordingly, I would find the polling results to be very unreliable. The results would imply Colorado is quite satisfied with a poor economy and the return of rising unemployment.

    Last week, at a job fair in Colorado Springs, the organizer said the economic conditions are worse than earlier this year, worse than a year ago. Of the 1000 or so job seekers, only 70 were invited for a second interview and around 10-12 hired.

    • David
      Posted September 27, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Sorry, “out” should read “it”.

  2. valleyforge
    Posted September 28, 2012 at 12:55 am | Permalink | Reply

    The independent split discredits the entire poll. I had never heard of Gravis before 2 months ago. Their results have been all over the place: Romney up in Michigan, Obama up in North Carolina. They will not be around for long.

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