Obama +3 in Florida — Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research

The Florida Times Union sponsored a poll of Florida and found Barack Obama with a 3-point lead 49 to 46.  No crosstabs were provided but Romney lead among Independents by 4 among Independents and both candidates have similar support from their base meaning the sample has plenty more Democrats than Republicans in a state that was D +3 in 2008:

Overwhelming majorities with black and Hispanic voters have helped President Barack Obama to a slim lead in the Times-Union’s Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research Florida Presidential Poll released Tuesday. Among likely voters, 49 percent favor Obama for November’s election and 46 percent like Mitt Romney. One percent backed other candidates and 4 percent were undecided. The poll of 540 Floridians has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Republicans (86-12) are overwhelming for Romney and Democrats (88-8) are almost exclusively for Obama. Independents (45-41) break for Romney.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 46
Other 1
Undecided 4


  1. Posted September 26, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Florida looks good for Romney. I am assuming the turnout will be R+1-2 (halfway between 2004 and 2008).

    Most polls show him up with Indies in the state, and not suffering massive losses of his base, so with that turnout it should be a win for him.

  2. Posted September 27, 2012 at 8:41 am | Permalink | Reply

    I believe there have been a few polls lately showing diminishing nationwide Jewish support, and if memory serves specifically in FL, for Obama. Do you know if any of the major polls do any weighting based on religion?

    • Posted September 27, 2012 at 8:46 am | Permalink | Reply

      I believe the CNN/ORC and NBC/WSJ polls had religion breakdowns in their surveys. I focus on state polls who rarely have that breakdown so I won’t be much help.

  3. Posted September 27, 2012 at 8:53 am | Permalink | Reply

    I see — thanks. Just an educated guess on my part, then, that as in a few other states that are in play (OH, PA), a more than trivial fall-off in Jewish votes for Obama in FL will materialize this time, one of several factors working in Romney’s favor in that state.

  4. mkelter
    Posted September 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Love your posts keithbacker. I live in Corrine Brown’s Congressional District, so I would expect to be seeing lots of Obama activity as I did four years ago. So far I’ve seen nothing. No yard signs, no bumper stickers, no canvassers, no phone calls.

    By way of comparison, four years ago I saw no activity from the McCain camp, but I’m seeing oodles of signs, bumperstickers, phone calls and canvassers from the Romney camp. It seems as if the Obama camp is either complacent or disinterested.

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