Washington Post Surveys Obama Re-election Team in Ohio, Finds Obama Leading by 8

You have to laugh at the absurdity of polls like these as I broke down in the post below:

  • 2008 was a best-in-a-generation advantage for Democrats
  • Obama’s job approval is locked below 50%
  • The unemployment rate has been above 8% for 3 years and it’s actually higher if you count the people so despondent they simply quit looking for a job
  • There isn’t one economic indicator that is positive for President Obama and the economy always surveys as by far the #1 issue for voters (there is never even a close 2nd)
  • Every single survey shows Obama’s 2008 coalition is less enthusiastic in 2012 than in 2008 (especially Hispanics and the youth vote)

At the same time the GOP ground game has improved over its 2008 performance by at least 10-fold (that’s no exaggeration).

And yet polls like the latest from the Washington Post get published with a Gomer from the Andy Griffith Show feel of “well Goll-ly look how many Democrats there are, Obama must sure be popular.”  It is professionally incompetent and completely partisan advocacy to survey states or the nation this way but there isn’t a reader out there who doesn’t already know the press is in the bag for the Obama re-election team.  The partisan breakdown of the poll was D +11 for adults, D +8 for registered voters and D +7 for likely voters.  In 2008 Obama enjoyed an advantage of D +8 in Ohio (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30).  In 2004 this was a Republican advantage of R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  Not the number cruncher @numbersmuncher broke down the Ohio returns and found that the party ID in Ohio was actually D +5 on election day, making this sampling even worse. Romney leads by 1% among Independents but the Washington Post finds Team Obama in full hopey-changey frenzy and by sampling 7% more Democrats than Republicans comes out with a result that Obama leads in Ohio by 8-points, 52 to 44:

For President Percent
Barack Obama 52
Mitt Romney 44
Other/Unsure 4


  1. Bobloblaw
    Posted September 25, 2012 at 10:22 am | Permalink | Reply

    One of the problems Romney has in Ohio is Gov Kaisch. Kaisch keeps running around the state touting how good things are preparing for his own re-election in 2014. It has the effect of boosting Obama.

    • Posted September 25, 2012 at 10:33 am | Permalink | Reply

      Kasich better learn Republicans will NEVER support him if he sabotages Romney in Ohio like you say.

  2. Posted September 25, 2012 at 12:11 pm | Permalink | Reply

    One would normally say why doesn’t Fox News jump on these obvious skewed polls but then their own is whacked. I do not understand why conservative talk radio the Hannity, Levin, Limbaugh’s aren’t hyping this at least to bring attention and try and keep republicans fired up and not discouraged. It seems that these talk show hosts so hate Romney so much and cannot fathom that their whackjob Santorum didn’t get the nod that they are just happy to let Romney get taken down so they can say TOLD YOU SO. Problem is if this was Santorum or Gingrich running they would be down 15 points legit. Romney is one of the cleanest candidates background wise there is. This is a full on hatchet hit job and the conservative media seems to be okay with it.

    • Bill Maher
      Posted September 26, 2012 at 5:43 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Have you ever listened to talk radio? Rush spends his entire show keeping the base from getting discouraged by the massively skewed polling. He breaks down almost every new poll showing Obama with a sizable lead, explains the guts of the data and explains that the intent of the deliberate bias is supress republican optimism (and thus, turnout). Talk radio is the only medium for the truth anymore, and all I hear are constant complaints by people who don’t even listen to em. If you think these people want Romney to lose… you are a moron. They offer constructive criticism because they WANT them to win, should they sit back and let Romney pull a McCain and talk about how good of a guy Obama is, stay away from ideology play nice in the sandbox while he’s accused of murdering some guys wife??? Is that productive to sit back and cross their fingers, or should they speak up and try to influence the campaign? They have all made it EXTREMELY clear that this is about OBAMA. Beating him is all that matters. Period. Everybody needs to relax about the polling and give the american people some credit. I’m not overestimating their intelligence (at all), I’m just confident in their instincts. If they were smart there would never have been another liberal elected president after Carte (though the media bias certainly doesn’t help, in their defense). They have no idea why things are bad or why they need to change, but they know they are and they do. Just like they did in 1980 and 2008 (we have a binary political system so when things are ugly, you can bet there’s gonna be a new party in the whiitehouse). There’s a reason no president has ever been re-elected with unemployment over 7.6% (or whatever that statistic is). In 2008 they were wrong for the wrong reason, this time they’ll be right for the wrong reason. Turnout drives elections and you need to use some gut instinct to predict turnout. Anecdotally think about how many people you know who voted for McCain in 2008, who now plan on voting for Obama (I literally don’t know a single one). Now think about the number of people who voted for Obama in 2008 who now plan on voting for Romney (I know a TON). Do people not remember the masses crying during his speaches? Do they not remember how much different things feel now? Yet they believe that Obama will win a state by 8 points in 2012 that he only won by 1 point in 2008??? Give me a break.

  3. lost democrat
    Posted September 25, 2012 at 11:47 pm | Permalink | Reply

    When I look around the State of Ohio. I hardly see any Obama Signs, bumper stickers or billboards. This includes the blue cities of Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati. I see the same lack of Obama signs on college campuses. There are no Obama signs to be found in the suburbs and rural areas. . There is little or no voter energy for Obama in Ohio. This nothing like 2008. It almost seems a little eerie. . My personal guess is after Obama outspending Romney at a 2 to 1 rate in Ohio , the best he can manage is to run even at best or slightly behind Romney.

  4. SteveR
    Posted September 26, 2012 at 2:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Perhaps what you see as the best turnout in a generation being an anomaly is actually a combination of two factors: First, republicans have been shafting working people by destroying their communities (schools, public safety) and safety nets and that could drive enthusiasm to defeat them. Second, the thing nobody wants to talk about, ever, George W Bush. You may not like to think so but plenty of people actually DO remember Bush and his policies and the clear connection to the outcomes. He lied us into a war and people know that better than they did in 2008. He also blew up the debt and never had a responsible thing to say about fiscal matters. People remember more than you think. Even if they do not overtly claim they are being influenced by their recollection of this dark time, they are. Mitt has failed at one of his two essentials: he has basically differentiated himself from Obama but has NOT differentiated himself from Bush. Same foreign policy advisers and the same economic doctrine, under-taxed rich people make jobs as a byproduct like working people make poo. I can smell the jobs coming now.

    • Posted September 26, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Those were all factors in 2008. But if those factors were still seared into the public’s mind, how do you explain a) the dramatic wins for republicans in 2010 at both the federal and state level where teh change was even more in favor of Republicans and b) that every one of these same polls show a sharp drop in enthusiasm for Obama especially among Hispanics and the youth vote? If Obama cannot recreate his 2008 coalition with the same fervor he had in 2008 he will lose and that is why these samples are so far off.

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] the shop stewards at GM plants across Ohio since the Obama re-election team was busy answering the Washington Post’s survey. This is for a state that less than 12-months ago went to the polls in a very pro-Union turnout and […]

  2. By Why Party ID Matters « Battleground Watch on September 26, 2012 at 5:56 pm

    […] the argument for why turnout will not meet or exceed 2008.  Something I have argued many times: The last presidential cycle was a perfect storm for Democrats — an unpopular GOP incumbent, […]

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