Obama +4 in Florida — Washington Post

No surprise the numbers are rather fishy in the Washington Post’s Florida survey.  The Washington Post survey of Florida showing Obama with an absurdly high job approval of 55%, a  4-point lead handling the Federal deficit, strong lead on handling the economy and 15-point lead on medicare oversampled by 6% (that the “registered voters” over-sample).  Only for the head-to-head results do they switch to likely voters where The poll started with a large swath of people (“adults”) who prefer Democrats by 10%. The subset of that group is “registered” voters who prefer Democrats by 6%.  Until they finally get to the subset of “likely voters” who prefer Democrats by 1%.  That’s an awfully big Democrat disparity to begin with that almost cleanly gets to a reasonable likely voter survey.  I wish the Washington Post (or most anyone) had credibility because the switch from registered voter to likely voter in Ohio simply moves the Democrat advantage down one point but here it moves it down 5-points.  I sure looks like a lot of registered voters got through the Post’s filter and were polled as likely voters. No matter, it will only make election day aftermath all the more sweet when we see delusional Democrats in disbelief at how they lost a poll when every media outlet told them they were cruising to an easy victory:

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 47
Other/Unsure 2

One Comment

  1. Doc Kilmer
    Posted September 25, 2012 at 4:10 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I live in Florida and I have been looking at the last 12 years registration vs. election results. Florida had 695,000 more Dems than Reps in 2008 and yet Obama only won by 250,000. These are Democrats in name only, but vote Republican primarily. Unless they are polling conservative Democrats, they will have skewed numbers even if the registration advantage is properly accounted for. 250,000 will likely be overcome by traditional voting patterns instead of the once in a lifetime turnout in 2008. Twitter -> @DocKilmer

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