Romney Leads By 12 with Independents but is Down 7 Overall in Nevada…Hmmmm — American Research Group

We beat up on these guys below for their national poll, but this Nevada one looks even worse.  President Obama has a 7-point lead over Mitt Romney 51 to 44 in the Silver State.  Obama gets 92% of Democrats and Romney gets 88% of Republicans and also 53 % of Independents yet he trails by 7%.  Is this Michigan or Massachusetts? The party ID breakdown is D +5 (Dem 42, Rep 37, Ind 21) versus 2008 of D +8 (Dem 38, Rep 30, Ind 32) and 2004 R +4 (Dem 35, Rep 39, Ind 26).   The only two takeaways are Romney needs to work harder for the GOP vote and this poll woefully under-samples Independents who favor Romney 53 to 41.  Romney has work to do in the state, but this poll isn’t reflective on the state of affairs in Nevada:

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 44
Other 1
Undecided 4

Interview dates: September 20-23, 2012
Sample size: 600 likely voters
Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points


  1. No Tribe
    Posted September 24, 2012 at 2:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Sheesh. It’s just not that great a cycle to be following the polls. One big groupthink that is skipping over the results from ’09 and ’10 and ’11 and earlier this year in ’12, to pretend its ’08 all over again, even better.

    Well, we will see election night. What a surprise for many when Romney wins.

  2. AussieMarcus
    Posted September 24, 2012 at 8:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Rasmussen is the only one that makes sense; has the national race tied, the swing state pooled poll tied, and each individual swing state tied….at least that is consistent.

    Even PPP kinda is consistent in that he massively overweights everything to show Obama up by 5-6% everywhere.

    But ARG isn’t even consistent with itself……national race tied but Obama up in Florida by 5?

    • Posted September 24, 2012 at 8:08 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I agree with your comment about PPP. Although I don’t blog them when I see their polls I subtract 5 points from Obama and damn if it isn’t always close to where I think the race is.

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