Obama +8 in Pennsylvania in a poll oversampling Democrats by 10%– Mercyhurst

Note: thanks to commenter MikeN, in my haste I misread one of the questions.  They were surveying vote intensity between the the two parties not the voter split of how many Democrats are voting for Obama and how many Republicans are voting for Romney.  It still means Independents probably favor Romney but we still don’t know the breakdown.  Sorry for the confusion and thanks to the commenter.

[Begin original post]And we’re supposed to call this poll credible but Susquehanna’s is not?  Come on.

The earlier Susquehanna poll showing Obama only ahead by 2-points generated a bit of a furor leading the Susquehanna Polling people to explain in great detail their methodology in the poll.  Basically by not sampling absurd turnout levels beyond the once-in-a-generation peak Obama achieved in 2008 Susquehanna arrived at a poll showing the race deeply competitive.  Mercyhurst Center for Applied Politics (MCAP)  had no such qualms in their poll and ran will full gusto into the arms of the Obama re-election team sampling the Pennsylvania electorate with a self identification over-sampling of Democrats by 10% (D +10 in Question 36).  The party ID breakdown was Dem 52, Rep 42, Ind 4 versus D +7 in 2008 Dem 44, Rep 37, Ind 18 and D +2 in 2004 Dem 41, Rep 39, Ind 20. So we have dramatically more Democrats and a disappearing Independent electorate for what is probably the fastest growing segment of the three. In a poll with a dramatic Democrat turnout advantage President Obama leads Mitt Romney 48 to 40 with 6 Undecided.

Highlights:

  • Both candidates lock down their base with 91% of the Democrat/Republican vote
  • In a poll with 52% self-identified Democrats Obama still can’t crack 50%
  • This would mean Barack Obama got almost zero votes from Independents (91% of 52 = 47.3; Obama’s vote total was 48)
  • Of the Independents it appears 40% lean Republican and 37% lean Democrat (Q39)
  • No mention of how Independents voted although the math says they voted 82 to 18 for Romney
  • Voters favor Pennsylvania’s Voter ID law 57 to 33
For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 40
Other 5
Undecided 6

4 Comments

  1. Timothy
    Posted September 24, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The good news is that sites like yours in the “new media” are not letting them get away with this stuff anymore. They can still report whatever they want, but there will be pushback.

  2. No Tribe
    Posted September 24, 2012 at 9:18 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I agree Timothy. I really appreciate getting some “clean” news here that looks at the race in an objective manner. I was able to look at the election in ’06 and ’08 pretty objectively, and be right on with the results and my expectations/predictions. Then it all switched, which I was able to see as well. And it was interesting seeing how too many didn’t see that switch happening. Anyway, Keith is a great blogger in the tradition of independent analysis, without hiding the bias or his enthusiasm, and able to present a case for it. Let’s hope we can keep it a secret through the election to keep out the trolls.

  3. No Tribe
    Posted September 24, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    The Susquehanna interpretation of the result was an interesting read, though we should resist the notion that it’s set in stone. There are some interesting polls out there showing quite a shift to Obama with the over 60 vote. I don’t think it will stay there, but Romney needs to win that group by close to 10% probably needs 8%. I think the bulk of the taxpayers, especially the Gen X voters, are going Romney the strongest.

    I totally agree with Susquehanna That generation Millennium is not going to be showing up in the same numbers, same with the Hispanic vote, and to an extent, the African American vote, as in ’08.

  4. MikeN
    Posted September 24, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink | Reply

    You’ve misread the poll. They haven’t provided the votes within each party. The 91-9 is how sure are you of your vote.

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