Evangelicals in Iowa Decide Obama is “The One”

Just kidding, but that’s probably what you’d have to believe to put any weight in this latest American Research Group poll.  Iowa is one of the more constant states in America when it comes to party identification, especially for Presidential contests. From the three elections we have data for the change has been the following: 2004 R +2, 2008 D +1, 2010 R +4.  Somehow after that sequence and the litany of reasons for people to sour on Obama, ARG comes out with a poll over-sampling Democrats by 4 points or D +4.  This is the state that voted out every state supreme court justice it could in 2010 because the body approved a measure in favor of gay marriage. I’m just sure President Obama’s embrace of this issue warmed him right up to this state.  That said, here’s the party ID breakdown of D +4 in the ARG poll (Dem 36, Rep 32, Ind 32) versus D+1 in 2008 (Dem 34, Rep 33, Ind 33), and R +2 in 2004 (Dem 34, Rep 36, Ind 30). Romney is dead-even with Obama among Independents (47 to 47), GOP voter registration advantage today is at 30k and growing versus a -108k deficit in 2008 yet somehow they construct a poll with a growing Democrat advantage?  Yea, I don’t think so either.  Note also, many of the numbers are quite similar to the Nevada poll.  Not just the top-line results that are identical. Obama gets 92% of the democrat vote in both poll and Romney gets 87% of the Republicans in Iowa and 88% in Nevada. The age breakdown preferences are also identical (assuming the Iowa typo should read 51). I’m wondering if there wasn’t something in the question wording, but no matter.  The survey is unrealistic as it is:

For President Percent
Barack Obama 51
Mitt Romney 44
Other 1
Undecided 4

Interview dates: September 20-23, 2012
Sample size: 600 likely voters
Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points

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