American Research Group Samples 6% More Democrats, Finds Obama Leading by 2% (& PPP comment)

This is a Battleground State blog but every now and again I’ll blog a national poll because t either provides a good read on the electorate or it’s so bad I feel the need to point that out.  This poll, like far too many over the last couple of weeks, falls into the latter category.  American Research Group constructed a survey where Obama ‘s locks down 90% of the Democrat, Mitt Romney locks down 92% of the Republican vote and also Romney leads among Independents by 7% (50 to 43) , yet he trails overall.  That simply won’t happen in this election.  If each candidate locks down his base and one candidate is disproportionately carrying Independents, that is the candidate who will win.  In some of the recent state polls that person was Barack Obama, but in this poll it is clearly Mitt Romney.  The party ID weighting was D +6 (Dem 40, Rep 34, Ind 26) just below the 2008 best in a generation for Democrats D +7  (Dem 39, Rep 32, Ind 29) and well-off the 2004 election where party ID was tied (Dem 37, Rep: 37, Ind 26).

Demos: The White Vote

Additionally there are some quirks in the demographic make-up.  The white vote (a slight Romney demo) comprises 77% of the electorate which was true in 2004 but it dropped to 74% in 2008.  This is a major point in polling and for the election.  The percentage of white voters comprising the electorate has been steadily and consistently dropping ~3% in each Presidential election since 1992. That would lead poll weightings to drop the white percentage to 71 or 72% (most I’ve seen say 72% which is defensible for various reasons). This issue is a large bone of contention with Democrats and in this instance they have an argument.

African-Americans

Interestingly Obama leads 92 to 5 among African-Americans.  This is worse for Obama than it might seem.  That disparity is closer to the historic norm (not 2008’s hopey-changey apex) for African-Americans voting Democrat.  This is part of the enthusiasm drop I often complain about which I believe will dampen Democrat turnout on election day — making most of the polls over-sampling Democrats null and void.

Obama’s 47% problem

“A total of 47% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 44% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.”

Off-topic: As a reminder I don’t blog PPP polls because they purposely skew polls to further an agenda.  They’re not a polling firm who happens to be Democrats.  They are a polling firm who skews polls to further the Democrat’s agenda.

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