Obama +2 in Pennsylvania — Susquehanna

Pennsylvania has been trending Obama’s way but in a state where President Obama’s support has been characterized as “rotten underneath” anything is possible.  The latest from Susquehanna Polling and Research shows the President clinging to a 2-point lead 47 to 45. It’s just one poll of one snapshot in time, but it does give rise to the notion that the Keystone State is not out of play yet.

Two percentage points separate President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a state poll conducted for the Tribune-Review, even though the campaigns largely are ignoring Pennsylvania and concentrating on other battlegrounds. Obama polled 47 percent to Romney’s 45 percent among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 6 percent of voters undecided and 44 days until Election Day, according to the survey by Susquehanna Polling & Research. The survey of 800 voters, conducted Sept. 18-20, has a margin of error of 3.46 percentage points. The poll showed most voters are disappointed with the country’s direction, evenly split on whether Obama deserves another term and hesitant to back Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts. Fifty-one percent of the state’s voters approve of Obama’s job performance.

Other recent polls showed a larger margin for Obama, leading some to speculate that Pennsylvania — which hasn’t voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1988 — no longer is a swing state. Two of those last four polls gave Obama a lead larger than his margin of victory in 2008, when he defeated Sen. John McCain of Arizona by 10 percentage points. “All the evidence points to a much closer margin,” said Jim Lee, Susquehanna president. “Nothing suggests we’re looking at anything like 2008.”

  • Romney leads Obama, 48 percent to 44 percent, on the question of who would create jobs to speed up the recovery. Ask who looks out for the interests of the middle class and Obama leads, 56 percent to 38 percent.
  • “Three in four (undecided voters) say the country’s going in the wrong direction,” Lee said. If they believe that, they’re unlikely to back the incumbent, he said. “They’re either staying home or they’re voting for Romney.”
  • Obama Job approval above 50% at 51 Approve/46 Disapprove
  • 34% say the country is on the Right Track while 59% say the country is on the Wrong Track
For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 45
Undecided 6


  1. Tim
    Posted September 23, 2012 at 4:15 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Do you think giving the shift in party ID, Romney could be up much more than indicated? Or do you see this raise being essentially tied even @ d + 3.

    • Posted September 23, 2012 at 5:51 pm | Permalink | Reply

      I think the race is pretty much tied right now with at most the slightest advantage to Romney (no more than 1 – 2 points). Poll s are always going to be volatile so if you view the race as essentially tied you’ll be in safe company. Romney still needs to “make the sale” to the American public which he will hopefully do in the debates. The public has already weighed in on Obama and they are open to switching residents in the White House but Romney has to give them a reason why that should be him.

  2. AussieMarcus
    Posted September 23, 2012 at 7:31 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Much as I would like to believe this poll, it is seriously out of whack with even Rasmussen.

    The GOP do appear to be flogging the state hard with the “ground game” so who knows?

6 Trackbacks

  1. […] of people on the Right were emboldened when they read the latest poll from Susquehanna showing Romney within 2points while nearly the entirety of the Left dismissed the polls as […]

  2. […] earlier Susquehanna poll showing Obama only ahead by 2-points generated a bit of a furor leading the Susquehanna Polling people to explain in great detail their […]

  3. […] Rep 37, Ind 18) and D +2 in 2004 (Dem 41, Rep 39, Ind 20). Well someone needed to challenge that Susquehanna poll showing a two point race in Pennsylvania because after the vigorous defense of their polling methodology someone may get the […]

  4. […] the Susquehanna polls of a very different electorate from 2008 as we regularly argue for shows the race practically knotted up.  And just as you don’t see Obama stumping in North Carolina or Romney stumping in New […]

  5. […] thing to remember about Susquehanna, on September 23 they published a poll saying Obama was up by only 2-points 47 to 45. Most every pollster had results greatly different than Susquehanna. Even two days prior, the much […]

  6. […] thing to remember about Susquehanna, on September 23 they published a poll saying Obama was up by only 2-points 47 to 45. Most every pollster had results greatly different than Susquehanna. Even two days prior, the much […]

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