Obama +1 in Florida — Tampa Bay Times/Mason-Dixon

Update: they provide a better link to the data than the one originally available.  Now we see the party ID is D + 5 (Dem 44, Rep 39, Ind 17).  This compares to 2008 at D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and 2004 at R +4 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 23).  So the poll does the usual trick of massively oversampling Democrats but it’s actual voter make-up is unrealistic.  Far too few Independents which in this survey hurts Obama’s numbers, and 7-10% too many Democrats and probably 2-3% too many Republicans.  This explains the “curious” numbers below.

Another virtual dead heat Battleground State poll, this time in Florida. The Tampa Bay Times, host paper for the Republican National Convention but a fairly liberal local publication, has a rather curious poll in their home state.  Barack Obama leads with Independents by a stellar 11 points but he only leads the race by 1-point.  Some of that is Democrats voting for Romney and Florida has one of the more unique voting populations so anything is possible but I really wish they gave the party ID breakdown.  Unfortunately, that was not provided in an otherwise treasure trove of data:

Highlights:

  • Mitt Romney leads by 11 among men
  • Barack Obama leads by 15 among women
  • Barack Obama leads with the youth vote by 22
  • Mitt Romney leads with seniors by 6
  • Mitt Romney leads among whites 55 – 40 (Obama must get at least 40 here or he’s in trouble)
  • Obama leads among African-Americans 95 to 4, similar to his 2008 performance
  • Barack Obama leads among Hispanics by 9 (Florida’s Cuban population greatly alters this demos voting relative to other states)
  • 87% of Democrats supported Obama while 92% of Republicans supported Obama
  • Barack Obama led with Independents by 11-points
  • Barack Obama’s job approval was positive but below 50 at 47 Approve/45 Disapprove
For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 47
Gary Johnson 1
Undecided 4

9 Comments

  1. John
    Posted September 23, 2012 at 1:12 am | Permalink | Reply

    Breakdown…

    44% D 39% R 17%.
    Bottom of page.

    • Posted September 23, 2012 at 1:06 pm | Permalink | Reply

      That’s funny John. The link at the bottom is a different link than the one they had last night. Thanks for the heads-up!

  2. Posted September 23, 2012 at 2:06 am | Permalink | Reply

    Doesn’t add up….. D+5 and Obama up +4 women over men and up 11 with independents??? yet only leading by one??? I’m guessing there is a lot of seniors that are Democrats in this poll? and Romney is getting them?

  3. johnfisher
    Posted September 23, 2012 at 2:20 am | Permalink | Reply

    Based on the bizarro state polling this week, it’s par for the course. Relatively low sample of independents may be why only a +1 for O.

  4. IGotBupkis, Legally Defined Cyberbully in All 57 States
    Posted September 23, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink | Reply

    }}} 87% of Democrats supported Obama while 92% of Republicans supported Obama

    Ummmm…. huh?

  5. IGotBupkis, Legally Defined Cyberbully in All 57 States
    Posted September 23, 2012 at 10:11 am | Permalink | Reply

    }}}} Mitt Romney leads with seniors by 6

    This, by the way, is hardly trivial.

  6. Posted September 23, 2012 at 10:47 am | Permalink | Reply

    Head scratcher. When you look at the correlation between Rasmussen and Gallup’s national polling, it’s really hard to get a true gauge right now. Romney is up big among indies this morning. D+5 model if I’m not mistaken would be 2008 and with that turnout model, Obama barely eeked out a win in Florida.

  7. shane
    Posted September 23, 2012 at 11:28 am | Permalink | Reply

    These polls coupled with the absolute LIE that Obama put 15,000 in his Wisconsin rally has solidified that the media have moved to out and out propaganda.

    I think we are seeing the basis that they know or suspect he will lose. So their plan is push Obama to the moon setup a landslide. Then if he loses they claim Republicans suppressed the vote, purged the rolls, outright cheated. Undermine a new Rep president out of the gate that votes don’t count, they are racists etc…how else could polls be so wrong unless Reps cheated. Sickening

  8. AussieMarcus
    Posted September 24, 2012 at 1:45 am | Permalink | Reply

    Poor old PPP had to crank up their D+ turnout model to D+8(!!) just to get Obama in front in Florida in their latest poll.

    Safe to say Romney is looking very strong in Florida.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: