Laughable Quinnipiac/CBS/NY Times Swing State Polls Still Surveying the DNC

UPDATE: Now I have the party IDs and they are special.  D +11 in Virginia (Dem 35, Rep 24, Ind 36).  Gotta hand it to you Quinnipiac, you’re moving to the head of the class in ridiculously bad polls this cycle. Now the Washington Post has something to shoot for.  Remember it was D +6 in 2008 and Republicans have eviscerated Democrats in most every Virginia race (save the state senate where it’s tied) since then. They own the Governorship, and have a large majority in the state lower house (68 – 32), yet only 24% of those surveyed were Republicans? Come on. Virginia since 2008 has been more like the drubbings in Wisconsin only Virginia had a history as a red state so it was less shocking. I thought yesterday’s WaPo poll was bad, but this is an embarrassment.

Colorado party ID is R +1 which splits the baby between 2008 and 2004, a very fair guesstimate on their part.  But this is less surprising since we say Obama win Independents by 1 in this state and he only led by 1%.  I’m guessing the Colorado pollster is getting detention today from Chicago.

And finally Wisconsin checks in at D +9, 50% higher than the 2008 margin of D +6 while 2004 was R +3.  This is easily the most polarized state in the country where after the gratest mobilization that had ever seen for the recall election, the Republican Governor INCREASED the margin of his previous victory, yet Q/CBS/NYT thinks Obama will improve by 50% his stellar margin in 2008 — the very peak of hopey-changey fanfare.

[BEGIN ORIGINAL POST]

I was waiting to get the direct links to Quinnipiac but the site remains down likely due to too much traffic this morning so I’ll forge on using other sources. The Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News unholy alliance has had some done truly awful polling this election cycle which is when I began joking these outfits were surveying the DNC to find polls with Obama in the lead. The most egregious was August 1 survey where Obama’s super-duper secret Death Star of micro-targeting was going to expand Democrat turnout margin by 4-5x the 2008 success. Then a few weeks ago they switched to likely voters which shrunk the over-sampling of Democrats but still had ludicrous party ID margins.  Now, I don’t have the party IDs but when you see Romney’s strong performance among Independents, you can easily see Democrats were certainly largely oversampled in the Virginia and Wisconsin surveys.

I’ve mentioned in a few analysis of shoddy polls, a good litmus test is Independents polling performance relative to the overall margin.  This is a good barometer of statewide performance that sifts through the party identification noise and democrat oversampling.  In today’s polls we see Romney doing great with Independents in Virginia (up a whopping 9%, 52 to 43) and Wisconsin (up 6%, 50 to 44) and down 1% in Colorado (46 to 47).  Yet the margin of lead for Obama is sizable in the two states Romney has large leads among Independents.  That tells you right up front those stats have large over-sampling or Democrat voters

Overall results:

In Colorado, Barack Obama is up 1-point 48 to 47 with 2 Other (i.e. a Gary Johnson) and 3 Undecided. Obama leads by 1% among Independents and 1% overall.  Colorado has been one of the more volatile states for party identification moving to D +5 (Dem 33, Rep 27, Ind 40) in 2008 from R +9 (Dem 29, Rep 38, Ind 33) in 2004 so this state will be one of the tougher ones to get a good sense of who will show up on election day.  A good “tell” in the state though is white voters who make up a large majority in Colorado.  In 2008 Barack Obama polled 9% better among the white voters than did John Kerry and his final winning margin was 9%. This is not a coincidence. Sadly this demographic is not provided in this survey.

In Virginia, Barack Obama leads by 4-points, 50 – 46 with 1 Other and 3 Undecided. Virginia has a growing Independent streak not seen in prior elections yet Mitt Romney leads by 9% among Independents and is down overall 4 points? They must have polled the same sample as the joke Washington Post survey yesterday to get this result. I will tell you write now, there is n way Mitt Romney wins Independents by 9% and loses the state of Virginia.  In 2008 Democrats had a 6-point advantage at the polling booths (Dem 39, Rep, 33, Ind 27), up sharply from 2004 where Republicans enjoyed a 4-point party ID advantage (Dem 35, Rep 39,Ind 26). The poll was conducted of 1,474 Virginia voters, between Sept. 11 and Sept. 17. It as a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

In Wisconsin, Obama leads 51 to 45 with 1 Other and 3 Undecided. Romney leads among Independents by 6, but is down 6 overall?I’m not persuaded. In 2008 Democrats had a 6-point advantage on election day (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 29). In 2004 Republicans had a 3-point advantage (Dem 35, Rep 38, Ind 27). Of course Wisconsin has had the famous tectonic shifts in its politics since 2008 yet the sampling still favors too many democrats turning out on election night. The poll was conducted of 1,485 likely voters, taken from Sept. 11-17.

One Comment

  1. Der
    Posted September 19, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I live in arguably the most liberal area of WIsconsin outside of Madison and Milwaukee metro. I recall 2008 in Superior, Wisconsin. It was Obama Mania: people canvassing nonstop, multiple Obama HQs, glowing letters to the editor, friends and family calling to try to convince you to vote for the guy, you could walk across one of the largest cities in square footage in Wisconsin tossing a pebble and hitting an Obama sign and moving on. I mean, we’re talking a 2/3 Obama, 1/3 McCain area with a fair amount of votes. Here we are in 2012, and it is like there is a gas leak in town. Nothing going on for Obama. No signs, no overheard conversations in restuarants, nothing. I know a lot of Union guys that I would never in my wildest imagination thought would be “in play” but they are undecided. So when I see these Wisconsin polls showing Obama at 51 percent with a D +9, I just have to laugh. Obama is not going to win Wisconsin. These polls truly are the Emperor’s New Clothes.

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] Old Dominion State has seen a lot of polling lately and usually with unserious surveys unreflective of the electorate this cycle. We Ask America, a group out of Illinois has been […]

  2. […] has had some of the most ludicrous polling this week and this one one joins that heap of unrealistic polling. The party ID of survey […]

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