Obama Running New Ads and Making New Campaign Stops in State He’s Leading by 14 — Marquette Law

That’s what today’s Marquette Law School poll would have you believe. No one credible with a foot on this planet thinks this poll is remotely close to accurate. I’ve complimented Marquette Law before but this is a joke. I’m deeply curious who they surveyed because Obama got a HUGE jump in support from Independents (now +15) which runs contrary to every other state and national poll.

A new Marquette Law School Poll finds … President Barack Obama has seen a large post-convention bump, with voters preferring him to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 54 percent to 40 percent. In August Obama led 49 percent to 46 percent… The presidential race saw similar shifts among independents, with Obama increasing his lead of 45 percent to 43 percent in August to 53 percent to 38 percent in September. Partisans continued to support their party nominee by 92 percent among Republicans and 95 percent among Democrats, unchanged from 93 percent and 97 percent in August.

The party ID split was Dem 34, Rep: 27 and Ind 37 or D +7 which is wholly unrealistic (2008 was D +6 and 2004 was R +5) but still does not account for all 14 points nor the jump in support from Independents. The lead still remains Obama +8 if they re-weight it to D +3 to match their prior surveys.

Franklin cautioned, however, that there was also movement in the makeup of partisanship in the poll. In September Republicans made up 27 percent of the likely voter sample, down from an average of 30 percent across all eleven Marquette Law School polls conducted since January. Democrats made up 34 percent, up from an average of 32 percent. Independents were 37 percent of the September sample, the same as their average for the year. “Our September poll makeup is about two points more Democratic and three points less Republican than average, which is within the margin of error,” said Franklin. If the sample were adjusted to match the yearlong average partisan makeup, both margins would tighten, with Baldwin leading 48 to 43 percent and Obama leading 51 to 43 percent. The poll of both landline and cell phone users was conducted September 13-16. The November matchups, based on a sample of 601 likely voters, have a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Other results are based on 705 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

One Comment

  1. Mandrake
    Posted September 20, 2012 at 4:33 am | Permalink | Reply

    Charles Franklin is the dude from Pollster.com (owned by Huffington Post), isn’t he? A +14 and yet Obama is campaigning in Milwaukee on Saturday. Go figure. If Obama is wasting his time and resources in such a “solid blue state” as this poll suggests Wisconsin is (despite Republicans kicking butt there for the last two years) you really have to begin to question just how good of a campaigner Obama really is.

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  1. […] the pollsters are modelling that he will have a larger turnout advantage in 2012 than he did in 2008… Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight It’s been 220 days since President Obama […]

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