Obama +8 in Michigan — CNN/ORC International

I hammer CNN/ORC International when they run clearly absurd national polls, but this is a reasonable sample. The party ID was D +8 which for Michigan is fair. The 2008 party ID was D +12, Dem 41, Rep 29, Ind 29 and in 2004 it was D +5, Dem 39, Rep 34, Ind 27. The state has had a serious exodus over the last decade thanks to Jennifer Ganholm’s “Michigan Miracle” turnaround which led residents to pack-up, turnaround and leave the state but it is still a Democrat state. Romney may be able to flip a few more his way than this poll’s party ID breakdown but based on recent history, it’s hard to argue for a serious re-weighting. Full marks for a credible balance.  The Independents break down exactly even but in a Democrat heavy state that’s not enough for Republicans. Romney needs to hit the state and find some Reagan Democrats to flip if he is going to compete in the Great Lakes State. Not much more I can say about it except… Go Irish!  Beat Wolverines!

It’s the state where Mitt Romney was born and where his father served as governor, but a new poll indicates President Barack Obama is leading the Republican nominee in the race for Michigan’s 16 electoral votes. According to a CNN/ORC International survey (PDF) released Wednesday, 52% of likely voters in Michigan say if the presidential election were held today, they’d vote for the president, with 44% saying they’d cast a ballot for Romney. The poll is the second in a week to indicate Obama with a lead. The president was up 47%-37% over Romney in an EPIC/MRA poll released last week. But polls conducted earlier this summer indicated a closer contest.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 52
Mitt Romney 44
Other 1
Undecided 2


  1. Harold Smith
    Posted September 19, 2012 at 5:28 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Can anybody shed some light on why we are seeing a lot of Obama commercials in Texas? He has no way possible to win Texas.

    • Posted September 19, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink | Reply

      My guess is those are national ads, not Texas-specific ads. Is your market close to New Mexico or Colorado? If so, it’s possible the TV coverage bleeds into those states but they can get it cheaper in Texas.

      • Harold Smith
        Posted September 19, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

        Come to think of it they are national cable shows on FOX. But I am not seeing any Romney commercials. I want to ask you a question. If the repubs had such a good turn out in 2010 why wouldn’t we expect a similar turnout this year? Nothing has changed.

      • Posted September 19, 2012 at 6:55 pm | Permalink

        The Obama campaign has outspent the Romney campaign by 9-to-1 on cable commercials so that is why you are seeing only Obama commercials, Romney simply isn’t running many of them. The difference between 2010 and 2012 is the fact that it is a Presidential election and more people from the President’s party will be inspired to show up up at the polls than during off year elections. It’s true for every cycle no matter who is in the White House. That is why turnout in 2012 can’t be assumed to be like the 2010 turnout.

  2. John Fisher
    Posted September 19, 2012 at 6:22 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Any thoughts on Pew that has the One up by 8. Beautifully organized report but I suspect isn’t worth the paper its written on.

    • Posted September 19, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink | Reply

      John, I actually don’t have much interest in national polls but got suckered into doing a few of them like CNN and NBC but really only want to focus on the Battleground State polls. As I recall, that Pew poll has Romney and Obama essentially tied among Independents (maybe +2 Obama — within the margin of error) yet they show Obama leading by 8. That says they sampled a turnout just like 2008 (7% more Democrats showing up at the polls) which I have gone to great lengths to show is simply not going to be repeated in 2012.

      • John Fisher
        Posted September 19, 2012 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

        Got it. Keep up the great work.

      • Harold Smith
        Posted September 19, 2012 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

        Yea great job. I am really nervous about this election. I am having a hard time believing Obama has a chance after all that has happened in the last 4 years. But his supporters and news medias ( one in the same) seem awful confident.
        Any info on the fox polls just out for Florida,Virginia, and Ohio?

      • Posted September 19, 2012 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

        I’m waiting to get the raw data so I can comb through them but the headlines are good for Obama (+7 in Virginia, +7 in Ohio and +5 in Florida). But in a cut of voter intensity, “extremely interested” voters only give Obama a lead by +2 in Ohio, tied in Virginia and Romney actually leads by 1 in Florida. But since I don’t have the data I can’t tell if “extremely interested” voters is a proxy for “likely voters” or if it is just a false delineation. Will post when I can.

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  1. […] this margin seems a bit high, the result is consistent with other recent Michigan polls and its not like Rasmussen Reports suddenly decided to change it’s sample make-up to […]

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