Obama +7 in Virginia — Fox News

Virginia has had some of the most ludicrous polling this week and this one one joins that heap of unrealistic polling. The party ID of survey respondents was D +6 (Dem 38, Rep 33, Ind 26), nearly identical to the D +6 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 33, Ind 29).  Virginia, a historically Republican state in modern times was R +4 in 2004 (Dem: 35, Rep: 39, Ind: 26). Previously we identified how dramatically Virginia returned to its Republican roots immediately after the 2008 election but these polls continue to baseline 2012 surveys on the 2008 anomaly. If Barack Obama repeats his 2008 turnout bully for him, but it would take a combination of epic meltdown by Team Romney combined with the “project Narwhal” Death Star micro-targeting being the next Napster/Facebook/IPhonecombined to do that in today’s environment. The problem is Romney is a better candidate and better funded than John McCain (low bar, I know) and Paul Ryan is a better candidate than Sarah Palin (although her enthusiasm lift to the McCain campaign was his only chance) so it leaves the highly suspect micro-targeting meeting and exceeding the unprecedented Democrat advantage they enjoyed when Bush fatigue, the financial collapse of the world and an inept campaign combined to give him a 7% national win. Can’t say I see that being repeated:

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers September 16-18, 2012, among a random sample of 1,006 Virginia likely voters (LV). Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers are proportionally representative of all regions across the state of Virginia. Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 52
Mitt Romney 44
Other 1
Undecided 2

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