Obama +7 in Ohio — Fox News

In volatile Ohio Romney leads by +4 among Independents but is down -7 overall?  I’m skeptical. The party ID was Dem +6 (Dem: 42, Rep: 36, Ind:21) versus 2008 which was Dem +8 (Dem: 39, Rep: 31, Ind: 30) and 2004 which was Rep +5 (Dem: 35, Rep: 40, Ind: 25). Ohio remains all over the map (party ID was dead even in the 2010 mid-term), Obama care is hugely unpopular in the state and his ban on fracking the Utica Shale is a huge sore spot.  Is the popularity of the auto bailout and improving unemployment picture thanks to the reforms of a Republican Governor enough to nearly repeat his 2008 performance when he won the state by 5%? I guess we’ll see but I’m skeptical. Among this unique subset of “extremely interested” voters (61% of likely voters), Romney leads by 1 so he does seem t have an intensity of support that doesn’t regularly translate in these surveys:
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers September 16-18, 2012, among a random sample of 1,009 Ohio likely voters (LV). Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers are proportionally representative of all regions across the state of Ohio. Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points.
For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 42
Other 3
Undecided 6

3 Comments

  1. ed
    Posted September 19, 2012 at 9:29 pm | Permalink | Reply

    what the hell is going on here…a very reputable firm had Romney up by 3 just yesterday and you reported on it…..

    • Posted September 19, 2012 at 9:46 pm | Permalink | Reply

      The polls are what they are — snapshots of a moment in time. In a close race if you survey too many Democrats, you gets polls showing the Democrats winning. Survey too many Republicans and you gets polls showing Republicans winning. That’s all that is happening here. I’ve show in previous elections where these types of polls left egg all over the faces of pollsters like the people who said 2010 would be a close year of races just ahead of the GOP slaughtering the field and in 2000 when Newsweek claimed Gore had a double-digit lead on Bush in September. No one remembers those polls (except me) so pollsters can get away with crap like this. All that matters is Romney’s message, making the sale and strong debate performance. After that we’ll all have plenty of schadenfreude for all those who are buying this nonsense. And you can believe there are plenty of us who will never let the pollsters and Obama campaign operatives in the media forget about it. Keep fighting the good fight. If we were losing they wouldn’t have to skew polls the way they are today. But they are doing that because we are not losing …

  2. johnfisher
    Posted September 20, 2012 at 11:13 pm | Permalink | Reply

    I’m not to sure about these live interview phone polls. Romney seems to do better on the automated polls.

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