Obama +5 in Florida — Fox News

A good result for the President in a likely voter poll where the party ID is Dem +5 (Dem, 42, Rep 37, Ind 20).  This compares to D +3 in 2008 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 39) and R +4 in 2004 (Dem 37, Rep 41, Ind 33). So if Barack Obama, mired in the worst economy in 80 years, unemployment at 8+% for 3.5 years and 23 million unemployed can exceed his turnout level when his candidacy was the most captivating story in the globe — even outranking the global financial meltdown, then it looks like we’re going to get another four years of the same hopey-changey malaise we have today. . . BUT, if reduced enthusiasm among Hispanics, and reduced enthusiasm among the youth voter, plus a fired up white America (specifically the men) are a reality on election day, then all of these polls and all the clandestine project Narwhal super-dooper micro-targeting of the galaxy nonsense will be worth no more than you pay to read this blog … which is nothing.  In Florida it is doubly silly to expect a better Obama performance since the housing collapse continues to weigh down the entire state, its unemployment rate drop is only a statistical drop from people dropping out of the work force, just like at the national level and one of Obama’s ostensible strengths with Hispanics is severely muted due to the high percentage of Cuban-Americans who trend Republican. Obama does lead by 2 among Independents which is a good sign for him although among a subset of likely voters (“extremely interested” voters), Obama is only tied with Romney:

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers September 16-18, 2012, among a random sample of 829 Florida likely voters (LV), including additional interviews (an oversample) of 77 randomly selected Hispanics. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers are proportionally representative of all regions across the state of Florida. The additional interviews of Hispanic respondents were done to allow analysis of the subgroup, and are weighted so Hispanics are not over-represented in the overall statewide sample. The total of 171 Hispanics is made up of 94 interviews done as part of the base statewide sample and an oversample of an additional 77 interviews. Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points.

 

For President Percent
Barack Obama 49
Mitt Romney 44
Other 2
Undecided 5

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