Obama +3 in Virginia if Romney is Found Strangling a Hooker — We Ask America

The Old Dominion State has seen a lot of polling lately and usually with unserious surveys unreflective of the electorate this cycle. We Ask America, a group out of Illinois has been aggressive this cycle with fair polls early on but skewing more and more over-sampling Democrats in July before I stopped hearing from them. This one unfortunately ranks with the growing trash-heap of polls surveying a public highly unlikely to represent Virginia on election day. Mitt Romney leads among Independents by 6.5% but is down in the poll 2.8%. I talked about Virginia below, but to reiterate, Republicans have eviscerated Democrats in most every Virginia race (save the state senate where it’s tied) since 2008 when Dems had a 6% advantage on party ID. They own the Governorship and have a large majority in the state lower house (68 – 32). Virginia since 2008 has performed more like the drubbings seen in Wisconsin only Virginia had a history as a red state so it was less shocking. When you combine the three Virginia polls, you do come to one important conclusion: the only way Obama wins Virginia is if he has a turnout advantage the likes of which have never before been seen in politics. A 65-70% job approval rating may get him that or Romney pulling an Arthur Carlson (greatest campaign implosion ever).  Unfortunately he’s always locked below 50% in any fair assessment and “The Big Guy” ain’t running.

After a planned convention-time hiatus from our public polls, We Ask America is back with Round 2 in our Big 10 series of presidential polls–starting with Virginia. Mitt Romney was doing well in Virginia in late June when we last polled here. But a lackluster convention, his stutter-step campaign and recently reported in-fighting among top staff have caused many pundits to wonder out loud about his prospects. Barack Obama has avoided similar problems…so far.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48.5
Mitt Romney 45.7
Gary Johnson 1.1
Undecided 4.7

One Trackback

  1. […] has had some of the most ludicrous polling this week and this one one joins that heap of unrealistic polling. The party ID […]

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