Romney +4 in Florida — Caddel Associates (

Pat Caddell and Jeri Thompson (Sen. Fred Thompson’s wife for those who don’t know) ran a couple independent polls for an organization called SecureAmericaNow showing Romney up in Florida and Obama up in Ohio. The party ID was D +3 (although rounding skew it to 4, 3 is the real number): Democrats 41.6, Republicans 38.4, Independents 18.3.  The 2008 Florida party ID was Dem +3 and 2004 was R+4 so this was a generous oversampling of Democrats for the president — very bad news for Team Obama: has just completed two surveys the influential states of Florida and Ohio. The poll of 600 likely general election voters in Florida was conducted on September 11 and 12, 2012. The Ohio survey of 600 likely general election voters was conducted between September 13 and 15, 2012. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units are structured to correlate with actual voter turnout during a presidential election. Each poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/-4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 43.8
Mitt Romney 47.7
Undecided 8.5


  1. Posted September 18, 2012 at 11:26 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Pat Caddell is certainly not a republican. These polls deserve as much attention as any other poll.

  2. ed
    Posted September 18, 2012 at 11:34 pm | Permalink | Reply

    second credible poll showing Mitt up in Florida. Ohio is the key that breaks the damn. And we have plenty of time to do it.

  3. Posted September 19, 2012 at 12:30 am | Permalink | Reply

    Not so fast. OH and VA are going to be tough. The Florida poll is really bad news for Obama because it oversamples women by 5 percent and uses a 3 point weight advantage toward Democrats. If this holds, we’ll see Obama pull out of Florida by Mid-October.

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