Romney +2 in Colorado — Rasmussen

Not a lot of separation between the candidates in the Battleground States and Colorado is no different.  The race keeps tipping back and forth between the two candidates which is likely to stay that way at least into the first debate.  Rasmussen Reports sees Mitt Romney with a 2-point lead in Colorado, within the margin  of error:

Mitt Romney has edged slightly ahead of President Obama in the battleground state of Colorado. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Colorado finds Mitt Romney with 47% support, while Obama receives 45% of the vote.  Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.  The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Colorado was conducted on September 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 45
Mitt Romney 47
Other 2
Undecided 6

2 Comments

  1. Posted September 18, 2012 at 11:14 pm | Permalink | Reply

    Party ID in Colorado as of September 1st is R+4. Partisan ID breakdown is 35R/31D/31I. Ras uses an R+1 in this sample apparently. Romney looks real good in Colorado. http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2012/August/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf

    • Posted September 18, 2012 at 11:36 pm | Permalink | Reply

      Those figures are for party registrations. This is where a lot of people easily get mixed up. Party identification is something different. When people are polled on the phone right now or when they are polled walking out of the voting booth for exit polls they are asked to identify themselves by party. This is irrespective of their voter registration. You see this disparity in states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania where registered Democrats from decades ago are the most dyed-in-the-wool Republicans but are still registered Democrat. So party registration does not equate to party identification and in fact is usually fairly different from the polling party IDs we’re arguing over.

      What is hugely important about the party registration numbers you linked in the incredible improvement Republicans have made since 2008 when Democrats had an unbelievable advantage in party registrations. The Democrats 2008 advantage meant they aggressively went out and registered enormous amounts of new voters and got them to turn out on election day. This led to Obama’s impressive win. Today the Democrats advantage has disappeared as your link demonstrates which means Republicans have been hugely successful since 2008 in finding Republicans, getting them to register to vote and now hopefully turning them out on election day.

      I hope that helps clear things up. thanks for the link. That is really good info.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: