Romney +1 in Florida — Gravis Marketing

Florida remains a beachhead for Romney.  If he doesn’t win Florida he almost certainly won’t win the election.  The state’s demographic and structural changes help Romney but it remains as competitive as ever in the Sunshine State.  Romney holds a 3+% lead among Independents and the party ID was D +6, Dem 44, Rep 38, Ind 18. Florida was D +3 in 2008 and R +4 in 2004 so this is good news for Romney as again the over-sampling of Democrats exceeds the 2008 spread:

Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, and Capitol Correspondent conducted a telephone survey of 1,728 likely voters in the state of Florida on the afternoon and early evening of September 15th and 16th, 2012. The questions covered preference for a given presidential candidate, the Florida U.S. Senate Race between Connie Mack and Bill Nelson, and Governor Rick Scott’s performance rating. The full list of questions are given on page 5. Overall, Romney holds a 47.7% to a 47.1% lead over Obama, with a margin of error of about 2.5%. The Romney lead of 0.6% is a decline of 0.7% from a 1.3% lead on September 2, 2012. The results are generally in line with recent polls from Rasmussen Reports (Obama +2), NBC/WSJ/Marist (Obama +5), AIR/McLaughlin (Romney +3), SurveyUSA (Obama +4), and PPP (Obama +1). The figures reported in this report are more recent, being as of September 15-16, 2012.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47.1
Mitt Romney 47.7
Other 2
Undecided 6

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