Debunking 2012 Election Myths — Quick Parallels with the 2004 Election

The Obama campaign thinks they are re-running the Bush-Cheney 2004 re-election strategy where a weakened incumbent faces a game but flawed challenger and eeks out a victory despite many metrics working against the incumbent (for Bush it was concerns over Iraq and for Obama it is concerns over the economy). Thanks to Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign operative, Adrian Gray, we have some statistics for comparison with today’s election.  And what you see is that the incumbent candidate with great name recognition (he’s the President after-all) usually polls well up to this juncture in elections but the challenger closes strong as voters tune -in and any dissatisfaction with the incumbent finds a home with the challenger. We check whether the statistics on the state of the race today really impact the outcome in November:

Fact or Fiction, Most polls show 60%-65% of voters think Obama is still going to win despite close polls: FICTION

Fact or Fiction, Conventional wisdom says Undecideds break for the challenger: FACT

Fact or Fiction, Obama job approval remain very poor for re-election purposes at 47%, but Team Obama says job approval trumped by likeability: FICTION

Fact or Fiction, The electoral college strongly favors Obama with more paths to victory than Romney who needs to “run the table” if things break Obama’s way: FICTION

  • 9-15-04 [including leaners]: Bush up AZ, CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, & WV. Kerry up ME, MN, OR, PA, WA, & WI. BC04 Internals 272 EV to 186
  • 2004 internal tracking had 80 toss-up EVs at this point (0-4%): CO, ME, MI, MN, NH, NM, PA and WI (challenger won 66 of 80).
  • [Bush-Cheney 2004] were also up MI, MN, NH, WI [all states he lost] ….point is… data high for incumbent at this point…challenger closes

Fact of Fiction, Polls consistently show Romney winning Independents, often decisively, but behind in the polls: FICTION

Fact or Fiction, Party ID is the bane of conservative poll watchers.  What is a “fair” split since no one knows what party ID will be on election day? FACT

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] always translate into electoral wins.  In 2004 George Bush lost every battleground State where is job approval was 53% or lower — a daunting statistic for a president at […]

  2. […] was all in the lead up to incumbent George W Bush’s re-election and as we have shown, Undecideds decisively broke for John Kerry.  The difference in that election was Bush banked an […]

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