Obama +4 in Florida IF Obama outdoes his 2008 Support — SurveyUSA

I haven’t blogged the Battleground States like normal due to the events unfolding overseas. We’ll return to our regularly schedule program soon, but this blog like most of the political and national landscape has been hijacked by the Embassy attacks in Libya and Egypt.

In the meantime this poll jumped out at me or the usual bias in sampling.  Florida voter party identification has been volatile going from R +4 in 2004 to D + 3 in 2008. Notable in this SurveyUSA poll the party identification is D +5, greater than Obama’s 2008 wave election and far different from the dead even mid-cycle election in 2010. So kudos to Obama for a 4-point lead in the electorally rich state of Florida that Romney has to win, but there is no chance he will outdo his incredible wave of support in 2012 so take this poll with a grain of salt:

In pivotal Florida, Barack Obama comes out of the Democratic National Convention 4 points atop Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Romney leads among Florida’s white voters, but that lead is erased by Florida’s minorities: Obama leads by 16 points among Cubans, by 36 points among non-Cuban Hispanics, and by 67 points among African Americans.

Romney leads by 5 points among men, but that is trumped by Obama’s 12 point lead among women. Romney leads in Northwest, Northeast and Southwest Florida, but that advantage is overcome by Obama’s strength in Southeast Florida, and Obama’s comparative strong standing in critical Central FL, where Obama today leads by 6. Romney leads among voters age 50+, but Obama leads by even more among voters age 18 to 49. Party affiliation cancels itself out: Romney holds 84% of Republicans, Obama holds 84% of Democrats, Independents split. Obama leads among those earning less than $80,000 a year, Romney leads among those earning more than $80,000 a year.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, conducted at a time when Obama attack ads about Bain Capital were airing unanswered, there is effectively no change in the race. Then, Obama led by 5 points. Now, Obama leads by 4 points, a nominal 1-point difference. Obama today has a Plus 1 Net Favorability, Romney has a Minus 2 Net Favorability.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 48
Mitt Romney 44
Undecided/Other 7

One Trackback

  1. […] in both Ohio and Virginia but was losing decisively in both polls. We see this in nearly every state poll.  In the ABC/Washington Post national poll on September 11 Romney led Independents by […]

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