ABC News and Washington Post in Full Obama Re-Election Mode

I don’t care to debunk every national poll but this is getting ridiculous. ABC and the Washington Post released a poll today trumpeting Obama’s 6-point lead over Romney (50 to 44). Unfortunately in their very own poll, the real conclusion is Obama has only a 1-point lead (49 to 48) but ABC buries that reality so they can bolster Obama’s surging momentum coming out of a Convention whose only bounce was thanks to a former President (Clinton) whom Obama loathes.

Every media outlet knows “likely voter” polls are more accurate than “registered voter” polls yet ABC’s lead and thrust of story is that Obama has a 6-point lead among registered voters. In one “oh by the way” sentence they acknowledge that the same survey shows Obama with only a 1-point lead among “likely voters” but since that doesn’t help Obama we won’t base our report off the know more accurate finding in our very own poll.

Keeping us further in the dark, ABC does not provide the “likely voter” screens but among “registered voters” Romney has a 2-point lead over Obama among Independents but loses the race by 6-points. This tells you Democrats had a large over-sampling in the poll which we later find in the Washington Post release was D +6,  Democrat: 32, Republican: 26, Independent: 37: Other: 5. This may not be as bad as the ludicrous CNN poll yesterday but it is bad nonetheless. I now take that back,  this poll ranks near that awful CNN poll. Ed Morrissey at Hot Air points out there is a likely voter screen among the Washington Post graphic breakdowns and Romney leads Obama by +11 points among Independents on the “likely voter” screen.  So Romney leads by 11 with Independents but is still down 1 point in the race.  No chance that is happening in November.

As a simple refresher in all of Obama’s hopey-changey fullness of 2008, on election day the Democrat advantage was D +7. Now Hispanics are far less enthusiastic. The Under-30 crowd is far less enthusiastic and African-Americans are largely back to their historic averages. Each of these groups played a huge roll for Obama in 2008 but every bit of evidence says 2012 will be worse for Obama with each of these groups based on just turnout let alone the changing preferences among the youth vote. The likely voter screen is also D +6, Democrat: 33, Republican: 27, Independent: 36: Other: 5 — still sharpely pro-Democrat and not reflective of today’s electorate.

In the vast majority of the touchy-feely question like who would you rather have dinner with, the sampling is even more absurd at D +10, Democrat: 33, Republican: 23, Independent: 37: Other: 7.

Bottom line: the race is still no worse than tied and likely that Romney has a small lead despite the media being in full Obama re-election mode mis-reporting their own data to the benefit of their preferred candidate.

One Trackback

  1. […] Virginia but was losing decisively in both polls. We see this in nearly every state poll.  In the ABC/Washington Post national poll on September 11 Romney led Independents by 11-points but by oversampling Democrats […]

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