Romney +3 in Ohio — Gravis Marketing

It’s looking more and more like Mitt Romney got a small but important bounce out of the Republican Convention.  The switch to likely voters should add another 2-points at least to Romney’s margin giving him some actual breathing room in what has been a dead even race for months.  There are still plenty of Undecideds (“Unsure” in Gravis Marketing surveys) so we’ll see if Obama’s Convention can reverse or mute the Republican’s Convention bump but I’m not sure last night’s performance is enough to overcome the ever-present spate of bad economic data. The latest from Gravis Marketing of Registered Voters in Ohio shows Mitt Romney with a 3-point lead over Barack Obama, up four points from Obama’s previous 1-point lead:

Gravis Marketing and Capitol Correspondent conducted a survey of 1,381 registered voters on the afternoon and evening of September 2, 2012 in the state of Ohio. The survey covered the same questions as the one from the week prior, dealing with preference for the presidential candidates, Senate candidates Josh Mandel and Sherrod Brown, Governor Kasich’s job performance, whether America is headed in the right direction, which presidential candidate is more charitable, and opinions about the appropriateness of homosexual marriage. The full list of questions are given on page 3. Overall, with a margin of error of 2.9%, Obama’s previous lead over Romney of 45.3% to 44.4% has switched to a Romney lead of 46.8% to 43.7%. Although within the previous polls margin of error, the Republican convention appears to have given Romney a 2 point bump while taking 1 point from Obama. Switching to the Senate race, before the Republican convention, Democrat Sherrod Brown held a narrow 43.6% to 41.4% lead over Republican Josh Mandel. Again, although within the margin of error, the postconvention poll gives Republican Mandel the advantage at 44.3% to 43.5%, representing a 3 point bump for Mandel, while Brown’s take staying basically constant. Both polls continue to indicate that the undecided voters will decide the outcome of the election.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 43.7
Mitt Romney 46.8
Unsure 9.5

One Trackback

  1. […] see if he can reverse the slight movement in Obama’s favor.  This state has been very volatile for many polling surveys (Purple Strategies comes to mind) so while this is a good day for Obama, there remains plenty of […]

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