Romney +1 Nationally Among Registered Voters — ABC/Washington Post

Instant Update: Ha! I just found out there is a Likely Voter screen and Romney is leading that one by 2 (49 to 47) yet both the Post and ABC put the less reliable Registered Voter result in their headlines because that would look better for Obama. The Post didn’t even mention the Likely Voter result.

I don’t normally blog nationally polls (since this is a Battleground State blog) unless there is something unusual in the survey — usually to the detriment to Republicans.  Three things, however, caught my attention in today’s ABC News-Washington Post poll:

  1. Romney is leading in a major national poll still using registered voters which means you can add between 2-4 points to Romney’s margin
  2. News agencies tout these releases for days to drum up interest in the newsworthiness of their polls. But  I didn’t hear a peep about this one.  Was it because Romney is leading? I don’t know but it is quite curious
  3. The media water-carrying on social issues on behalf of the President has had zero impact on voters.  Overwhelmingly they care about the economy and have poor ratings for Obama in that regard

Both of these fit perfectly into the thesis of my earlier post that both the Obama campaign and his shills in the media know that Obama is already losing no matter how many biased polls they release. Today’s poll dropped with no fanfare further cocooning the media in their pro-Obama echo chamber.

Additionally, the internals among registered voters for Obama in this poll are horrible:

  • The party ID was D +9 (Dem 31, Rep 22, Ind 39, Other/Don’t Know 9) same as their July dead heat poll, so again a huge over-sampling of Democrats. They really may be sampling the DNC by October to find a competitive poll
  • 56% disapprove of his handling on the economy
  • 85% say the economy is not good
  • A plurality support Romney over Obama on handling Medicare 45 to 42
  • A plurality support the Ryan Budget and a strong majority approve of the Ryan pick as VP
  • Obama is identified as a Big Government guy by 73% whereas the registered voters surveyed are small government types 59% to 35%
  • Right track/Wrong track is 29/69
  • The Tea Party is viewed favorably by 46% vs 43% unfavorable

All of which helps explain much of the strangely desperate maneuvers and lashing out by the Obama campaign:

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Romney at 47 percent among registered voters and Obama at 46 percent — barely changed from the deadlocked contest in early July. The findings continue a months-long pattern, with neither the incumbent nor the challenger able to sustain clear momentum, despite airing hundreds of millions of dollars in television ads — most of them negative — and exchanging some of the harshest early rhetoric seen in a modern presidential campaign.

Romney’s selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his running mate also did not fundamentally reshape the race, although the GOP’s conservative base has grown more enthusiastic about the ticket — but no more so about the chances of beating Obama in November.

Enthusiasm — or a lack thereof — will be on display as Republicans and Democrats hold their conventions over the next two weeks. The two parties will make their pitches to an electorate stuck in a deeply pessimistic mood. More than eight in 10 give the economy negative marks and nearly seven in 10 see the country as seriously off track — an assessment that has not changed significantly all year.

The Post-ABC survey highlights the dominance of the economy as an issue in the 2012 election. Seventy-two percent of voters say the president’s handling of the economy will be a “major factor” in their vote this November.

Fewer voters place great significance on other issues that have roiled the campaign, including newly minted GOP vice presidential candidate’s plan to restructure Medicare, differences between the parties on women’s issues and Romney’s handling of his tax returns.

Obama continues to get more negative reviews than positive ones for his handling of the economy, and there is tepid confidence that the economy would get back on track in a second Obama term. Majorities have disapproved of how Obama is dealing with issue No. 1 for more than two years, although his numbers have not further deteriorated, despite a string of weak jobs reports leading into the fall campaign season.

Romney now holds a slim, seven-point edge among registered voters when it comes to handling the economy, even as there is also limited faith that things would quickly get better if he was to win. Obama counters with an equivalent advantage over Romney when it comes to who is seen as having a better understanding the financial problems people are facing.

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