Michigan All Tied Up 47 – 47

Consistent with what I blogged earlier, it is political punditry malpractice to not include Michigan among the Battlegrounds. Romney is unquestionably competing in the state, he has decades long ties to the state and  Real Clear Politics has the average margin at +3.3%.  Now Mitchell Research has its fourth poll in the state showing Michigan as competitive as ever with both candidates deadlocked at 47.  Previous Mitchell Research polls has Obama up +1 in June, Romney up +1 in July and Obama up +5 in mid-August.

Michigan is proving once gain to be a battle ground state. In the most recent poll, Romney and Obama are tied at 47% with 3% voting for someone else and 3% undecided.  The automated telephone survey of 1277 likely voters in the November General Election was conducted Thursday, August 23, 2012 and has a Margin of Error + or – 2.74% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Romney has solidified his lead with Republicans and has moved back into a tie with Obama as a result of a big shift in men voters towards his candidacy. He has also gained ground with independent voters. Only ten days ago, he trailed with ticket splitters by 6% (46%-40%). Now, Romney leads with independents by 8%. There is also reason to believe that the addition of Paul Ryan to the ticket helps Romney. When the vice presidential candidates are added to a trial ballot question, Romney/Ryan leads Obama/Biden by 1% (46%-45%). When asked if Congressman Ryan’s vice presidential candidacy makes them more or less likely to vote for Romney, 53% say it makes them more likely and 47% less likely,” Steve Mitchell, Chairman of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

The gender gap continues to be significant. Obama’s 13% lead with women remains identical to what it was 10 day ago (54%-41%). The big change is with men where Romney has increased his 3% lead (48%-45%) ten days ago to 14% (53%-39%) now.  The biggest change is with independents. In this poll, Romney has retaken the lead with the pivotal independent voters (46%-38%). He led by 10% with ticket splitters in July (44%-34%), but trailed with them by 6% (46%-40%) ten days ago. In June, Romney led (43%-38%). The percentage of voters that identify themselves as Independents is down to 13% from 16% in the last two surveys.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 47
Mitt Romney 47
Other 3
Undecided 3

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