Quick Thoughts on First Read’s Ranking of the Battlegrounds

Earlier this morning MSNBC ranked the Battlegrounds in order of Romney’s chances of flipping the 2008 blue state into his column.  I only have a few issues with their list so I’ll provide a one sentence comment followed by my ranking in parenthesis at the end:

1. North Carolina — Not a Battleground.  It’s already Romney’s. How many times has Obama visited this state over the last 90 days?  He doesn’t want to be seen trying to win this lost cause and his ad dollars prove it. ( – )
2. Iowa — A little surprised they see it this high since I view it as one of the pure toss-ups. Romney’s position on the wind tax credit could be an Achilles heel. I would have put Florida here especially after recent polling proves Seniors ❤ Paul Ryan. (2 )
3. Florida — I think this is the next state to fall for Romney and would have ranked it #1. Seniors love Ryan, the Hispanic vote is split and the economy sucks.  Put this in Romney’s column by October. ( 1 )
4. Colorado — Another pure toss-up with Iowa, Virginia and Ohio (in my book).  I would make those 4 states tied at 2-5 in the rankings. ( 3)
5. Virginia — Pure toss-up. Plenty of advantages in Northern Virginia balanced against plenty of advantages for Romney everywhere else.  This state will be a battle up to and through Nov 6. (4)
6. Nevada — This state is a tough nut to crack.  I want it to be a toss-up but until I see Romney making serious progress here and overcome the state party fratricide it’s a slight lean Obama but still vulnerable due to the horrible economy. (6)
7. Ohio — I put Ohio in the pure toss-up even though the Dems think it’s a lean Obama due to the auto bailout. The energy issue and Obamacare disdain are equally powerful and a huge weaknesses for Obama. (5)
8. Wisconsin — The state has the obvious strengths for Romney in Scott Walker’s ground game, Ryan on the ticket and the changing state landscape since 2010.  But it’s a Democrat state until I see polls showing Romney up 3+ meaning he’d win by 1-point. (7)
9. New Hampshire — One of the hardest state’s to read.  There is a huge Independent streak in this state that can break either way. Romney’s ties to the state are a huge help but the entire region has been trending blue for decades. (8)

Addendum:

Michigan — It is political punditry malpractice to not include Michigan in this list.  Romney is unquestionably competing in the state, he has decades long ties to the state and  Real Clear Politics has the average margin at +3.3%.  It is a definite Battleground (9)
Pennsylvania — Obama is vulnerable in this state but Chuck Todd regularly poo-poos this state as a Battleground and ever more I am inclined to agree with him  It may flip to Romney but it would be well after Romney has cliched the Presidency. (10)

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  1. […] with what I blogged earlier, it is political punditry malpractice to not include Michigan among the Battlegrounds. Romney is […]

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